Expectations vs Reality: How Europe’s most lethal scorers in 2024/25 lived up to or lagged behind their xG

Written by Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp is an experienced sports writer covering Soccer, NBA and NHL. He also writes in depth reviews of sports betting sites based on his personal experience.

, | Updated: July 17, 2025

In modern football, expected goals (xG) has become an essential tool for evaluating striker performance beyond raw numbers. While traditional stats measure only outcomes, xG captures the quality of chances – based on factors like shot distance, angle, and defensive pressure. By comparing a player’s actual goals to their xG, we can identify who exceeded expectations with clinical finishing and who struggled to make the most of their chances.

To better understand the efficiency of Europe’s top forwards, Sportingpedia looked closely at every player who scored at least 15 goals in the 2024/25 season across the top five leagues. Players were grouped into three categories: overachievers (those who beat their xG by 5 or more), middle ground performers (between +0.1 and +5), and underachievers (neutral or negative difference). All players on this list delivered in terms of goal volume, but how they arrived there reveals another layer of insight.

One of the most curious revelations was that Bayer Leverkusen’s Czech striker Patrick Schick exceeded his xG by 8.3 goals last season – the highest margin among all players analysed. A total of 10 players exceeded their xG by 5 or more goals, while 9 footballers registered neutral or negative numbers. Eintracht’s in-demand striker Hugo Ekitike scored 6.6 goals fewer than expected last season – the biggest negative xG difference not just among players with 15+ goals, but across all footballers in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Still, the sizeable gap between output and expectation may be precisely what clubs like Liverpool and Newcastle see as untapped potential waiting to be unlocked.

Players with 5+ goals above their xG in Europe’s top 5 leagues (2024/25)

Data Source: fbref.com

The Overachievers: +5 or more goals above their xG

Exactly ten players exceeded their expected goals by five or more, marking them out as the most clinical finishers of the season. Patrick Schick topped the list with 21 goals from just 12.7 xG – an overperformance of +8.3. Omar Marmoush and Bryan Mbeumo followed with +7.7 each, while Chris Wood – also impressed with his +6.6. Wolverhampton’s Matheus Cunha (+6.4), Villarreal’s Ayoze Perez (+6.3), and Manchester City’s Omar Marmoush (+6.2) round out a diverse top group. Mateo Retegui (+6.1), Harry Kane (+5.7), Oihan Sancet (+5.3), and Kylian Mbappe (+5.1) completed the elite set – each proving far more efficient than their shot profiles predicted.

Players with 0-5 goals above their xG in Europe’s top 5 leagues (2024/25)

Data Source: fbref.com

The Middle Ground: Between +0.1 and +5 goals above their xG

This group includes players who slightly outperformed their xG but stayed within expected margins – a sign of consistency and reliable finishing. Notables include Riccardo Orsolini (+4.9), Mason Greenwood (+4.7), and Ousmane Dembele (+4.4), with Mohamed Salah (+3.8) also performing above model expectations. Atletico Madrid duo Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, Newcastle’s Alexander Isak, and Osasuna’s Ante Budimir all hovered in the +2.7 to +3.2 range.

Players with goals equal to or below their xG in Europe’s top 5 leagues (2024/25)

Data Source: fbref.com

The Underachievers: 0 or less goals than their xG

While scoring 15+ goals is an achievement in itself, a few players posted tallies that fell short of what their chances suggested. Ermedin Demirovic (+0.9), Ollie Watkins (+0.7), Yoane Wissa (+0.5), and even Erling Haaland (0.0) sat right at or just above expectations. But others underdelivered: Robert Lewandowski (-0.1), Jonathan David (-0.2), and Raphinha (-1.2) all finished slightly below their xG. Alexandre Lacazette (-1.3) and Serhou Guirassy (-1.7) followed suit. The biggest gaps came from Cole Palmer (-2.3), Moise Kean (-2.4), and Hugo Ekitike (-6.6), the only player who fell short by more than five goals than expected.

This analysis underscores that high scorers are not always the most clinical. Patrick Schick, Omar Marmoush, and Bryan Mbeumo outshined their peers with ruthless finishing, while others like Ekitike failed to capitalise on strong chance creation. In a landscape driven by marginal gains, efficiency in front of goal can be the difference between good and great – and these numbers tell that story.

“Premier League clubs appear to be interpreting xG trends in sharply contrasting ways. Manchester United seems to be targeting forwards with proven efficiency, having already signed Matheus Cunha, who outperformed his xG by over +6 last season, and now pushing to land Bryan Mbeumo, another standout in the same category. Liverpool and Newcastle, on the other hand, appear to be betting on upside rather than current efficiency. Both clubs are targeting Eintracht’s in-demand striker Hugo Ekitike, who scored 6.6 goals fewer than expected last season – the biggest negative xG difference not just among players with 15+ goals, but across all footballers in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Yet that sizeable gap may be precisely what they see as untapped potential, believing Ekitike’s underperformance masks room for major improvement.” – comments Pavel Kateliev, football editor at Sportingpedia.com