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Win Rates and Points per Match After the First Group-Stage Round at the 2026 World Cup

UEFA teams averaged 1.71 points per match and posted a 42.9% win rate, ahead of CONMEBOL and CONCACAF sides, each on 33.3%

Written by Paul Kemp
Paul Kemp is an experienced sports writer covering Soccer, NBA and NHL. He also writes in depth reviews of sports betting sites based on his personal experience.
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The first round of group-stage matches at the 2026 World Cup is now complete, and the opening games have already produced a mix of shocks, statements, and warning signs. Spain were held 0-0 by Cape Verde, Portugal dropped points in a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, while Argentina’s 3-0 win over Algeria gave South America one of the round’s clearest victories. Germany’s 7-1 win over Curacao and Sweden’s 5-1 victory over Tunisia further underlined how uneven the first set of results has been.

That made us curious to see which FIFA confederations had actually come through the opening round in the strongest shape overall. Sportingpedia looked at how many wins the teams from each confederation recorded and compared all six by two main measures: points per game and win rate. The analysis includes only matches between teams from different confederations, which means England’s 4-2 win over Croatia was excluded because both teams represent UEFA.

The numbers show that UEFA teams had the best start, taking 24 points from 14 team appearances for 1.714 points per game, with 6 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses. European sides also lead by win rate at 42.9%, while South America and CONCACAF both recorded 2 wins from 6 team appearances, giving each a 33.3% win rate. CONMEBOL, however, collected slightly more overall, with 8 points and 1.33 points per game compared with CONCACAF’s 7 points and 1.17. Asia stay close on points per game with 10 points from 9 team appearances, or 1.11, despite a lower 22.2% win rate, while Africa combine some of the round’s biggest surprise results with one of the weakest overall returns: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses and 1.0 point per game from 10 team appearances.

Key Takeaways:

  • UEFA teams made the strongest opening-round start, averaging 1.71 points per game, ahead of South American teams on 1.33 and CONCACAF teams on 1.17
  • European teams also lead by win rate with 42.9%, ahead of CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, each on 33.3%
  • South American teams matched CONCACAF’s win rate, but CONMEBOL finished higher on points per game because they had one more draw and one fewer defeat
  • AFC teams collected 10 points from 9 matches, the same total as African teams from 10 matches, giving Asia the better average: 1.11 points per game compared with CAF’s 1.0
  • CAF teams produced two of the round’s biggest surprises, Cape Verde’s draw with Spain and DR Congo’s draw with Portugal, but African teams still rank only fifth by win rate
  • UEFA was the only confederation with more wins than losses, as Europe’s teams finished with 6 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats against teams from other confederations

Average Points Won per Match for each FIFA Confederation After First Group Stage Games at the 2026 World Cup

Average Points Won per Match for each FIFA Confederation After First Group Stage Games at the 2026 World Cup

Teams from UEFA had the strongest first-round return. Germany, Sweden, France, Norway, Austria, and England all won, which left Europe’s representatives on 24 points from 14 matches and the best average in the tournament so far at 1.71 per game. That lead becomes even more impressive in light of the two biggest shocks involving UEFA sides, with Spain held to a goalless draw by Cape Verde and Portugal forced to settle for a 1-1 draw with DR Congo. Even with those setbacks, European teams still finished the opening round ahead of every other confederation on both points per game and win rate.

South American sides made the second-best start on points per game, averaging 1.33 from six teams. Argentina and Colombia supplied the confederation’s two wins, but the wider picture was much less commanding, with Brazil and Uruguay both held to draws and Ecuador and Paraguay beaten. That left South America with a respectable return overall, but one built more on mixed results than on clear superiority, especially compared with Europe’s stronger and deeper opening round.

Countries from CONCACAF follow with 1.17 points per game. Their two wins came from the United States and Mexico, but those were balanced out by three defeats across the confederation’s six teams. That explains why CONCACAF finished below CONMEBOL on points despite matching its total number of wins. The attacking return of eight goals was decent, but the 11 conceded showed why the confederation could not push any closer to the top two.

Teams from AFC averaged 1.11 points per game, driven by victories for Korea Republic and Australia, plus four draws. That left the confederation just behind CONCACAF in the main points table, even though its teams scored more goals overall, with 13. The problem was at the other end, where AFC sides conceded 17 times, the highest total of any confederation. So while the points return kept Asia in touch with the middle pack, the goal record showed a much less controlled start.

OFC’s only representative earned a draw and therefore averaged 1 point per game. With only New Zealand involved, its position is difficult to compare directly with the others, even if the return was enough to keep OFC level with CAF on points per game and ahead of it on win rate.

The African teams also averaged 1 point per game, but their path to that figure was very different. Their two wins came from Ivory Coast and Ghana, while Cape Verde, Egypt, Morocco, and DR Congo all collected draws. That means CAF teams were responsible for some of the opening round’s most eye-catching results, especially the draws against Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and Belgium. Even so, the confederation still finished with the weakest attacking return of all six, scoring only seven goals, while conceding 16. So despite producing some of the biggest surprises, CAF teams still made the least convincing overall start by the numbers.

Win Rate for each of FIFA’s Confederations After First Group Stage Games at the 2026 World Cup

Win Rate for each of FIFA's Confederations After First Group Stage Games at the 2026 World Cup

The win-rate table adds another layer to the points-per-game picture. UEFA teams won 42.86% of their opening-round matches (6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses), giving European sides the strongest record when only matches against teams from other confederations are counted.

Behind them, CONMEBOL and CONCACAF finished level by win rate. South American teams won 33.33% of their matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), the same rate as CONCACAF teams (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). The difference came in the draws column, where CONMEBOL picked up one extra point and finished higher on points per game.

AFC teams had a different profile. Their 22.22% win rate (2 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses) was lower than both CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, but Asian teams still collected 10 points from 9 matches because they avoided defeat in six of those games.

CAF teams also finished on 10 points, but from 10 matches. African teams posted a 20.00% win rate (2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses), with Cape Verde’s 0-0 draw against Spain and DR Congo’s 1-1 draw with Portugal standing out among the opening-round results. Their two wins also came in dramatic fashion, as both Ivory Coast and Ghana scored last-minute goals to beat Ecuador and Panama.

OFC had only one match in the comparison, with New Zealand drawing 2-2 against Iran, which left the confederation with a 0.00% win rate (0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses).


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