Calculating Football Bookmaker Commission
Despite the fact that bookies have existed for a good long while, it was not until the 19th century when the term was utilized for the first time. It is safe to say that the gambling industry has marked a staggering growth of recent years, with new bookies coming into life almost every day.
Needless to say, there is not a significant difference between what bookies were used to doing in the past, and what they do today. Perhaps, the biggest dissimilarity stems from the fact that currently, a good deal of the bookmakers operate online, thus ensuring that their patrons will enjoy greater flexibility. You may have already noticed that most of the interactive sportsbooks maintain that they offer the most advantageous odds. One of the most essential things football lovers should have in the back of their mind is that bookies will give them the chance to make stakes on a broad variety of markets, and will calibrate the value of the odds so that they can enjoy a guaranteed profit, regardless of the outcome of the matchup.
Bookmakers’ Margin Explained
Football lovers who wish to learn more about the commission of bookmakers need to know that punters refer to it in several different ways. In essence, the commission bookies take away is popular with soccer bettors also as the vig, margin, take, or cut. No matter which one of these terms you will stumble upon, you should remember that they refer to one and the same thing, namely the commission bookmakers take away from every stake gambling enthusiasts make.
It is essential to remember that these values do not coincide with bookmakers, and on some occasions, the margin differs on one and the same event. Other than that, in an attempt to catch the fancy of soccer lovers, bookies tend to offer the so-called reduced juice on certain events, meaning that they come up with more advantageous odds. In essence, many soccer bettors erroneously consider that the value of the odds is determined by the assessments of the bookie which have to do with the team which is more likely to end up victorious. Still, this is only partially true.
It is vital to remember that while bookies are adjusting the odds on a particular matchup, their main aim will be to ensure that their value will win gamblers over so that they could make wagers on both sides of the market. The reason why this comes about is that bookies endeavor to even their liability in accordance with the feasible outcomes. Still, as long as the liability is made fully even, bookies will not make money at all. That is the reason why they tend to set a margin so that they could ensure that when the liability is made even, they will enjoy a profit.
What is a Fair Market
It is safe to say that football lovers will be capable of figuring out what bookmakers’ margin is by taking a look at a toss of a coin. As likely as not, you know that the probability of each of the possible outcomes to come about is 50%, meaning that the value of the odds should be something of the order of 2.0. Thus, let’s assume that you and a friend of yours have decided to wager as much as $10. As long as you have wagered on tails, such an outcome will bring you $10. As long as heads come up, you will lose $10. As you can see, in this situation neither you, nor your friend will enjoy an edge due to the fact that the odds show what is the actual probability of each of the possible outcomes to turn out. This situation is also known as a 100% market, which means that punters, as well as the bookmaker, will not have an advantage. Hence, such a market will not have a margin at all.
Still, as long as we presume that the bookie you have registered with allows you to make a stake on a toss of a coin, but it wants to gain a profit, you need to know that the market percentage will exceed 100%. Therefore, the values which go over 100% will reflect the margin of the bookmaker or the commission you need to pay when using its services.
In simple terms, the situation with the toss of a coin shows the manner in which bookies work. One of the most important things football bettors should remember is that they should invariably check what is the margin the virtual bookie they have signed up for an account has. This is vital due to the fact that the margin will have a direct relation to the value of the odds they will be able to opt for, as well as the profit they might potentially enjoy.
If we return to the example with the toss of a coin, and we assume that the odds you are offered are 1.90, this will mean that for every $10 you stake, the winnings you might potentially enjoy will be something of the order of $19, meaning that your average loss will be $1, which explains how bookies make money.
How to Estimate the Market Margins
Needless to say, bookies do not offer the true probability of an event to occur due to the fact that they will not enjoy a profit. What they do instead is to offer odds the value of which exceeds the true probability of a specific outcome to come about, thus guaranteeing that they will have an edge in their favor. As it was already mentioned, this departure from the true price represents the margin of the bookmaker.
One of the things which set seasoned football bettors apart from total greenhorns is that the former are well aware of the variations which might be observed in the margins of the different bookies. In essence, inexperienced soccer bettors should also make sure that they will figure out how margins are calculated simply because thus, they will find the interdependence between the margin, the value of the odds, as well as the profit they may revel in.
When all is said and done, we can proceed with the calculation of the margin. Football lovers should rest easy that they are not required to make any complicated calculations, so if you are not that good at maths, you can heave a sigh of relief. The first thing soccer lovers need to do is to estimate the implied probability of each of the possible outcomes. Thus, let’s presume that there is a matchup between Juventus and Napoli. The odds of Juventus to become victorious are 3.10, whereas the odds of Napoli are 2.30. The draw probability is 3.30. Now, what you need to do is to divide 1 by each of these values. Thus, we will get 0.322, 0.434, and 0.303. The next step is to add up these numbers, meaning that in our case, we will get a total of 1.059, which therefore hints that the market margin stands at 105.9%. Football bettors should commit to their mind that in this manner, they will be capable of calculating the margin on a 1×2 market which gives punters the chance to make a stake on each of the teams to win, as well as on a draw.
In order to calculate the margin of the bookie on two-way markets, soccer fanatics simply need to divide 1 by the value of the odds of the first team to become victorious, and then to divide 1 by the value of the odds of the second team to become victorious. Then, you simply need to add up the numbers, and to multiply the value you have got by 100 so as to get the value of the margin.
How is Football Betting Commission Calculated
Finally, we have managed to reach the crux of the matter, namely the manner in which football betting commission is estimated. The good news is that this is not such an arduous task as it might seem at first glance. Let’s assume that there is another matchup between Barcelona and Arsenal and the odds of the teams to become victorious are 1.97 and 3.70 respectively. Despite the fact that at first glance, making a stake seems like a good idea in this situation, first, you should make sure that you have calculated the commission of the bookie so as to figure out whether making such a stake is worthwhile. In order to estimate the commission of the bookmaker you have signed up for an account, we will assume that the commission rate stands at 4%, and the stake you have resolved on making is $100.
In order to get the value of the commission which the bookie charges, we need to stick to the following equation ((stake x odds) – stake) x commission rate. If we return to the example we gave, and we assume that you have decided to punt on Barcelona, the equation will look like this (($100 x 1.97) – $100) x 4 = 3.88.
In our case, as long as you decide to make such a stake, the commission you will be charged stands at $3.88, meaning that the profit you will enjoy stands at $93.12, whereas your returns will stand at $193.12.
Once they have figured out how the commission of bookies is worked out, football lovers might be interested in puzzling out how to calculate their true odds. Perhaps, you are already aware that when it comes to wagering on soccer, or on sports in general, the value of the odds hardly ever reflects your real chances to make a winning stake. As far as true odds are concerned, soccer devotees should commit to their mind that these values will represent their true chances of winning.
As we have already managed to work out the commission the bookie will charge, calculating the true odds will be as easy as pie. The equation soccer bettors need to stick to looks like this ((stake x odds) – commission the bookie charges) / stake. In our case, the equation will look like this: (($100 x 1.97) -3.88) / $100 = 1.9312.
Gambling enthusiasts should also take into account the fact that there are calculators which will give them the chance to estimate the football bookmaker commission with a few clicks. As long as you wish to give such a calculator a go, you should know that first, you will be required to select the odds format which you prefer utilizing. Then, you will be required to enter the value of the odds you are offered, and the calculator will estimate the true odds, the payout you might potentially enjoy, as well as the margin. Best of all, for their most part, these calculators give football lovers the chance to figure out the bookmaker’s margin on both two-way and three-way markets.
Tracking Down the Best Markets
Needless to say, football bettors will enhance their chances to revel in more lucrative outcomes, provided that they learn how to spot the best odds on the events they wish to gamble. Still, this remains one of the hardest tasks for total greenhorns when it comes to soccer betting.
What football lovers need to do is to check the value of the odds bookies offer so that they could figure out which one offers the most advantageous odds. Despite the fact that sometimes, the difference might seem insignificant, you need to know that even the slightest difference matters due to the fact that it might have an impact on your overall profit. Other than that, in this way, gambling enthusiasts will have the chance to reduce the commission the bookie charges, which will tip the scales in punters’ favor as well. It is important to note that when it comes to the margin bookies have, sometimes, the difference might be quite noticeable, meaning that there will be a difference in the potential returns as well. The reason why we mentioned this is that football lovers who want to make sure that they will be able to get the most out of their betting session should be aware of this.
Conclusion
We hope that you have made out how important the calculation of football bookmaker commission is. The reason why we endeavored to shed some more light on the manner in which the commission is calculated is that this is the best way to spot the bookie which grants the most advantageous odds on the event you wish to punt on, which therefore means that you will stand a better chance to enjoy good results.