Kelly Criterion Football Betting Method
As it turns out, the Kelly Criterion remains one of the most favored methods of football betting. Still, this is anything but surprising due to the fact that the method will help you to resolve on how much money you should wager in the event that the odds are in your favor. The most pleasing thing about this football betting method remains that it promises to deliver a higher profit in comparison with most of the other such options available out there.
The Kelly Criterion Explained
As far as wagering on football is concerned, gambling enthusiasts should remember that the Kelly Criterion might turn out to be the best tool for optimizing the returns they may potentially enjoy. Best of all, gambling devotees will also have the chance to make their bankroll less vulnerable. Thus, if these are exactly the goals you have set, it might be a good idea to explore the manner in which this football betting method functions.
One of the first things we need to clarify about the Kelly Criterion is that in practice, this is a mathematical formula which is utilized in order to figure out how much money you should put at risk in the specific situation. Football lovers should be informed that this betting method takes account of their bankroll, which remains one of its distinctive traits.
Thus, if we take a look at the Kelly Criterion formula from football betting perspective, it will come into use while we are estimating the size of our stakes. In other words, soccer lovers will be capable of figuring out how much money they should lay down, depending on the budget they have. More likely than not, now, you think that utilizing this football gambling method during your betting session will be as easy as pie. Unfortunately, there is more to it than you might anticipate due to the fact that soccer lovers need to pay special attention to the likelihood of their stake to turn out to be a winning one.
The reason why you should endeavor to do this is that with the Kelly Criterion, gambling enthusiasts will be required to augment their stake in the event that their chances of winning are higher and vice versa, to diminish the size of their stakes when they are less likely to score a win. In this way, football lovers will be able to enjoy more substantial returns, whereas the losses they might experience will not be that heavy.
Still, football lovers should commit to their mind that the likelihood of their stakes to become winning ones cannot be estimated with such clarity and precision due to the fact that there is a broad variety of factors which should be taken account of. In essence, soccer lovers who wish to puzzle out whether their stake is odds-on to become a winning one, or they are more likely to lose, should remember that to some extent, such conclusions depend on their personal judgment. That is the reason why many old hands at football betting take a dim view when it comes to utilizing the Kelly Criterion during their sports betting session.
One of the main reasons why total rookies might find it quite hard to make use of this football betting method is that they will be compelled to make up their mind about how likely certain events are to occur. Needless to say, this requires a lot of expertise, and of course, a good deal of exactness.
The Kelly Criterion Formula
Gambling enthusiasts who wish to plunge into soccer betting should know that as long as they have decided to give the Kelly Criterion a try, they are advised to make use of decimal odds. The reason why you should consider utilizing this odds format is that it will be much easier for you to make the necessary calculations.
When all is said and done, football lovers need to know that the formula they should make use of looks like this: ((B x P) – Q) / B. As likely as not, you are perplexed right now. The good news is that you should not get dispirited due to the fact that you are highly unlikely to stumble upon any issues while figuring out the components which make up the equation.
In this equation, B represents the multiple of the wager football lovers stand the chance to sweep. Thus, since we have resolved on utilizing decimal odds, punters are required to subtract 1 by the value of the odds they are allowed to opt for. In simple terms, as long as we assume that you have committed yourself to wager as much as $20 at odds of 3.00, this would mean that a winning stake will bring you as much as $60, meaning that the multiple is 2.
The next parameter we will focus on is P, which is used in order to represent the likelihood of your stake to become a winning one. As long as we presume that the chances of your wager to become a winning one are 40%, this would indicate that the probability of your stake to bring you a reward is 0.40.
When it comes to Q, however, it reflects the chances of your stake to become a losing one. Thus, since we have assumed that the chances of our stake to become a winning one are 40%, therefore, there is a 60% likelihood that it will be a losing one. Hence, in our case, the value of Q would stand at 0.60. In other words, football lovers might subtract the probability of success from one, so that they could get the probability of failure.
Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ((2 x 0.40)- 0.60) / 2 = 0.1. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0.1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. The fact that the value we have eventually got is positive indicates that you will enjoy an edge, meaning that you will have the chance to reap larger rewards.
Many knowledgeable football punters consider that the Kelly Criterion is heads and shoulders above a good deal of the other staking methods due to the fact that with this betting method, the risk which might occur is significantly smaller. Contrary to what most people believe, the Kelly Criterion might turn out to be quite demanding due to the fact that soccer lovers should make sure that their calculations are accurate as otherwise, they might end up with an exhausted bankroll in a few ticks.
Thus, if we take as an example a toss of a coin, making a stake on either heads or tails comes with 50% chances of turning out to be a winning one, meaning that the implied probability would stand at 0.50. In this specific case, the value of the odds will stand at 2.00. Therefore, as long as you reckon that the chances of your stake to become a winning one exceed 50%, this would mean that it promises to bring positive value.
As likely as not, you might be slightly bewildered at the moment why we are telling you all these things. One of the most essential things football lovers should commit to their mind is that the only way to make sure that the Kelly Criterion will bring them the desired results is to go for stakes which promise to bring positive value.
It is safe to say that value is subjective due to the fact that soccer bettors have different standpoints about the likelihood of their stake to become a winning one. Still, gambling enthusiasts should remember that while they are making up their mind about the stake they should make, they are advised to bet at odds the value of which will suffice to make up for the risk they should take.
This is precisely where the Kelly Criterion comes into play. Thus, as long as the value you have eventually got is negative, this should hint you that you should abstain from making such a stake, even if you consider that it stands a good chance to become a winning one.
Let’s take a look at another example so as to make sure that you have figured out the ins and outs of this football betting method. Now, let’s suppose that you have decided to make a stake on a matchup between Real Madrid and Ajax, and the odds of the teams are 2.60 and 4.50 respectively. Let’s presume that in your viewpoint, the chances of Real Madrid to end up victorious are 65%, which therefore means that the implied probability will stand at 0.65. Hence, according to the Kelly Criterion, eventually, we will get -0.05 as the equation will look like this: ((0.50 x 0.65) – 0.35) / 0.50. Since the result we have ultimately got is negative, this should indicate that it would be a better idea if we abstain from making such a stake simply because the odds are not high enough to compensate for the risk we will need to take.
Pros and Cons of Utilizing the Kelly Criterion for Football Betting
As likely as not, one of the main reasons why gamblers decide in favor of this football betting method is that it can easily be described as one of the most uncomplicated ways to figure out what portion of your bankroll you should consider staking. Despite the fact that at first glance, it might seem to you that the method is quite demanding, football lovers should rest easy that once they have managed to memorize the components of the formula and the manner in which they should employ them, they will figure out that the whole procedure is quite straightforward. Best of all, gamblers are not required to possess a mathematical savvy in order to make the calculations which will undoubtedly appeal to many punters.
Unlike many of the other betting methods, the Kelly Criterion allows for the size of your bankroll. In essence, when you are making up your mind about the staking plan which will help you achieve your goals, you should make sure that it is grounded on the amount of money you have intended for gambling purposes.
As likely as not, one of the biggest assets of making use of the Kelly Criterion is that it helps you to make up your mind about the theoretical value of the stake you are intent on making. It is fair to say that this is a major advantage due to the fact that football lovers will have the chance to find the golden middle between safeguarding their bankroll and increasing it. One of the best things about the Kelly Criterion remains that thanks to it, football bettors will have the chance to optimize their profit due to the fact that they simply need to make more substantial stakes when the value is higher and vice versa, to make smaller stakes when the value they are offered is lower.
When it comes to the merits of this football betting method, we should not forget to mention the fact that gamblers will have the chance to figure out whether they should make a stake or not with a single glance at the expected value. Thus, as long as the value is negative, this should serve as a red flag that you should forbear from making such a stake.
Football lovers who are intent on making use of the Kelly Criterion should be aware of the fact that this betting method has its flaws as well. Perhaps, one of the hardest things soccer lovers need to do is to estimate the probability of their wager to become a winning one accurately. Thus, as long as you fail to do so at least reasonably well, you will not be able to calculate the amount you need to stake properly, meaning that thus, you will put your bankroll in jeopardy.
Other than that, many knowledgeable football lovers reckon that at times, this betting method might turn out to be quite aggressive. In other words, sometimes, gambling enthusiasts might be compelled to make some quite substantial stakes, which is why many punters are reluctant to utilize the method. Needless to say, you might not be pleased with the situation as long as you are required to risk 10% of your bankroll. Interestingly enough, for their most part, punters are prone to staking a maximum of 5% of the funds they have intended for gambling purposes per a single wager.
The good news is that football bettors can deal with this problem, provided that they are more heedful when they are making their assessments. By this, we mean that it might be a good idea to make more humble bets than the betting method would suggest. In essence, many soccer lovers have decided to change their approach and to wager a certain fraction of the values the method recommends.
Soccer devotees should commit to their mind that this betting method is not a 100% guarantee of success, meaning that the fact that you are utilizing it does not promise that you will win consistently. Other than that, punters should remember that they should be able to spot value bets which requires some expertise as well. In a nutshell, the Kelly Criterion might not be the best tool for enhancing your chances of reveling in more lucrative results, but it might turn out to be useful as long as you wish to manage your funds properly.