Key Takeaways:
- Liverpool has led Premier League probabilities with a 28.9% chance of retaining their title, as stated in the latest CIES report
- Real Madrid has emerged as La Liga’s title favourite, with a 40.6% probability, ahead of both Barcelona and Atlético Madrid
- Crvena zvezda has posted the highest championship likelihood across 29 leagues examined, with a 76.2% chance of securing the Serbian title
CIES Study Details Title Prospects Across Major European Leagues
According to the 512th weekly report issued by the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES), Liverpool are statistically favoured to defend their Premier League crown, while Real Madrid possesses the strongest probability of La Liga success for the current campaign. The CIES, headquartered in Neuchâtel, Switzerland, has used a comprehensive statistical model to assess the likelihood of clubs claiming league championships across 29 competitions.
Probability to be champions as per @CIES_Football statistical model 📊
🔝 🏴 #LFC 29% 🇪🇸 #RealMadrid 41% 🇫🇷 #PSG 73% 🇩🇪 #FCBayern 61% 🇮🇹 #Inter 26%
Data for all clubs in 2⃣9⃣ leagues and variables 👉 https://t.co/4nsfnnVuZ9 pic.twitter.com/0Pi9XqPMtJ— CIES Football Obs (@CIES_Football) September 10, 2025
Methodology and Indicators Used in Title Predictions
The prediction model devised by CIES integrates various key indicators: sporting metrics (including advanced passing data in the opponent’s half sourced from the Impect platform), economic variables (total transfer investments in deployed players), and demographic parameters (such as the volume of minutes played by athletes over the past year, and the competitive standard of those minutes).
Top Probabilities Across Leagues: Statistical Table
| League | Top Favourite Club | Probability (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Serbian SuperLiga | Crvena zvezda | 76.2 |
| Ligue 1 (France) | Paris Saint-Germain | 73.0 |
| Prenier League (South Africa) | Mamelodi Sundowns | 70.6 |
| Premier League (England) | Liverpool | 28.9 |
| La Liga (Spain) | Real Madrid | 40.6 |
| Serie A (Italy) | Inter | 25.6 |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | Bayern Munich | 61.4 |
| Eredivisie (Netherlands) | Feyenoord | 28.6 |
| Pro League (UAE) | Shabab Al Ahli | 23.5 |
Most Contested Leagues and Coverage Gaps
Of the leagues assessed, certain competitions displayed a notably even playing field, with the UAE Pro League’s Shabab Al Ahli registering the highest likelihood of success at 23.5%. Similarly, Italy’s Serie A and the Dutch Eredivisie have been identified as highly competitive, with top probabilities of 25.6% for Inter and 28.6% for Feyenoord, respectively.
