How to Calculate NBA Arbitrage Bets
| Updated: November 10, 2025
Sports betting is a favorite pastime of people all over the world, and basketball is one of the most popular sports to bet on regardless of punters’ nationality or location. Unlike American football, basketball enjoys great interest not only in the US, and avid basketball fans can back their teams by placing bets at almost all online sportsbooks. This high level of admiration is due not only to the sport’s global reach but also to the fact that it is an entertaining pastime and allows for diverse betting strategies. Given the variety of bets, things get even more interesting.
Although we often talk about sports betting as a hobby, a free time activity, or simply as entertainment, in the end we all hope to make some profit. For professional bettors, it is a primary source of livelihood. Knowing the game rules and keeping up to date with information about teams and players is, of course, very important, but not enough for a successful basketball betting experience. Gambling aficionados use different strategies, one of the most popular being arbitrage betting. If you are not fully familiar with this term, we invite you to keep reading and learn exactly what the concept is and how it can contribute to less risky betting on basketball matches.
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Basketball Arbitrage Betting Explained
As can be assumed, the word arbitrage is not strictly a sports term but is used in other areas, mainly economics and finance. Essentially, it represents the practice of purchasing an asset or product and quickly selling it in another market for a higher price. Often, but not always correctly, it is referred to as a risk-free operation. It is not difficult to guess how this principle is applied to sports betting. In fact, sports arbitrage has been around since the beginning of the bookmaking business but has become increasingly popular in recent decades along with advances in online technology.
Arbitrage bets enable wagering on all possible outcomes of a given sporting event, thus guaranteeing some profit regardless of the result. Basketball devotees who are well versed in this form of betting will be able to take advantage of the differences in the odds offered by the various online sportsbooks. This way, no matter how the match ends, punters will earn a profit.
If we have managed to get your attention and you are already interested in arbitrage betting, the first thing you need to master is keeping a close eye on several selected betting platforms so you can place bets on the same sporting event. Keep in mind that arbitrage opportunities may be available only for a limited time because the odds are highly volatile. So, if you notice a significant disparity in the odds offered by different bookmakers, place your bets immediately and you will be able to achieve a high profit with almost no risk.
What Is The Reason for The Different Betting Odds for The Same Event?
Arbitrage situations are not always the result of a different judgment on the part of the bookmakers concerned. There can be several other reasons for the discrepancies.
Competition for more punters
Online sports betting is a highly competitive field with hundreds of sportsbooks flooding the Internet. All of them are interested in maintaining a steady customer base while also attracting new punters. As a result, some bookies provide short-term, higher betting odds, thereby creating arbitrage situations.
Unusual short-term betting activity
Sure bets emerge in moneyline betting situations when a sportsbook experiences an excessive cash flow toward one of the outcomes. In such extraordinary and unpredictable circumstances, the odds for that outcome decrease, and for the opposite outcome increase. However, this phenomenon is not observed at other bookmakers, and, logically, their odds differ significantly.
Insufficiently fast reaction to live events
Basketball is a particularly dynamic sport, and sometimes the situation can change dramatically in just a few seconds. Two consecutive three-pointers, for example, can give such a boost to the trailing team that it reverses the score and eventually wins the match. Events on the court happen so fast that bookies sometimes fail to adjust the odds in time.
How To Find Arbitrage Betting Opportunities
Arbing has never been easy, and nowadays it requires constant monitoring of multiple events across hundreds of online betting platforms, a task that can be burdensome and tedious. Modern punters typically use three methods to find arbitrage bets, two of which save a lot of time and effort.
First comes the old-school manual search still practiced by many bettors around the world. If you insist on using this method, our advice is to apply it to live betting events, as this is where bookmakers are more likely to make mistakes and give you a chance to place profitable arbitrage bets. On the other hand, live betting odds move really fast, and you need experience to succeed with a manual search during ongoing events. For punters using this strategy, suitable basketball markets include over/under points, handicaps, and winners in quarters or halves. If you are a novice, it is wiser to place bets during game breaks.
A more convenient way to find arbitrage bets is by using free arbitrage scanner software. Providers of this type of service scan various online bookmakers and compare the odds they offer to uncover arbitrage opportunities. The advantages are clear: without paying anything, you gain experience and can fund your account faster than through a manual search. The comparison performed by the software also shows you what each sportsbook offers and which of them best suits your preferences.
Punters should keep in mind two main drawbacks of using free arbitrage scanners. Because no payment is involved, many people use the same software, which makes the activity easier for bookmakers to detect and increases the chance that bettors will be flagged as arbers. As you know, bookmakers do not welcome them with open arms. Another downside is that most free scanners display arbs with an approximate delay of one minute. Although this may not seem like much, it gives an advantage to users of paid scanners. If many of them place their bets first, the odds may drop before you have a chance to do so.
Punters who want access to a larger number of arbitrage bets and to significantly increase their potential winnings should consider using the paid versions of these services. Paid arbitrage finders show results with no delay and have no profit percentage limitations. It is better to use these scanners after you have gained some experience, because many of them are pricey and you need to know how to make the most of them. Some providers offer weekly subscriptions, which are a great way to test whether the service suits you.
How To Calculate NBA Arbitrage Bets?
Now that you know how to find an arbitrage situation, it is time to start wagering. After you have located a suitable event that offers guaranteed profit, the punter should split their stake proportionally to lock in a successful bet.
We will look at an example featuring a match between the Orlando Magic and the Philadelphia 76ers, with a stake of $80. We are about to bet on which team will win, and the formula is as follows:
(1/Orlando Magic odds) + (1/Philadelphia 76ers odds) < 1
The odds included in our calculation are: 1 (Orlando Magic) – 6.00 (Bookmaker “A”) and 2 (Philadelphia 76ers) – 1.50 (Bookmaker “B”).
(1/6.00) + (1/1.50) = 0.167 + 0.667 = 0.83, which is 17% less than 1.
A possible split of the $80 stake to result in profit:
- 1 (Orlando Magic) – 6.00 (Bookmaker “A”) x $15.60 = $93.60
- 2 (Philadelphia 76ers) – 1.50 (Bookmaker “B”) x $62.40 = $93.60
This type of wagering locks the two possible outcomes into a guaranteed payout of $93.60 from the $80 stake, or in other words, a 17% net profit (a high sure bet).
5 Risks of Arbitrage Betting
Despite the clear options for minimizing risk through an arbitrage betting strategy, it must be borne in mind that nothing in life is 100% risk-free. A number of risky situations are possible, but they are relatively minor and can be mitigated easily. If we compare the potential profit from sports arbitration with the possible negatives, the former outweighs the associated risk.
However, before you start your real-money betting, we advise you to look at our compilation of 5 main risks associated with arbitrage betting and ways to overcome them.
Odds moving too fast
As we have already clarified, the basic principle of NBA arbitrage betting is to place at least two simultaneous bets in two online sportsbooks. No matter how modern your computer is, there is always a delay of a few seconds between placing the first bet and the second one. Not infrequently, during this time the bookmaker changes the relevant odds and leaves you in a position where the arb is no longer profitable.
The good news is that even if the bookie lowers the odds, in the worst case this will lead to a very small loss (e.g., 1%) and may even leave some profit. To avoid this risk as much as possible, make sure you always stay alert and use multiple monitors if possible. It would also be very helpful if you open separate accounts with different betting platforms. Do not confirm a wager before you are ready to place the same stake with the other bookmakers involved in your arbitrage bet.
Human factor
We are human beings, and as such it is normal to make mistakes. Whether it is a typo, a transposition error, or a failure to thoroughly check the game rules, small mistakes can lead to serious consequences. The worst part is that you will not know there is an error until you see that bets have been settled against you.
The more experienced you are, the fewer mistakes you will make, so it is a good idea to start with paper trading first. Double and triple-check everything before you confirm your bets, and be prepared to fix mistakes as soon as you notice them.
Dissimilar bookmaker payout rules
Placing an arbitrage bet between online sportsbooks with differing game rules is quite risky. For example, the terms and conditions that determine when a bet is settled may vary if a coach withdraws the team because of a disagreement with the referees. One bookie may void the bet while another may pay your winnings if the wager is successful, or keep your stake if the wager is unsuccessful. The solution is simple: read the rules before placing any bet.
Palpable errors
Although not that common, online bookmakers can void bets if they believe they have made an obvious mistake with the odds (such as reversing the odds of both teams). Reports of this practice usually involve sportsbooks with questionable trustworthiness and unclear licensing. If you stick to reputable betting platforms, you will rarely encounter such a situation.
Account closure
A common risk when practicing arbitrage betting is that your account may be restricted or completely closed by a bookmaker. Online bookies monitor for suspiciously high and frequent winnings. Any player who is deemed too sharp and consistently successful may lose their account without prior notice. A smart tactic is to place several small, random bets between your arbs. This way, the trend in your betting activity is harder to detect.
Conclusion
Sports arbitrage bets, and basketball bets in particular, can be a very good opportunity to earn a side income online by exploiting the discrepancies in the odds between different sportsbooks. Of course, do not expect to become a millionaire overnight, but if you act wisely and avoid the risks we mentioned, you can make a decent amount of money. An individual arb delivers only a small profit, but as you repeat the process many times, the results improve significantly.
Arbitrage betting can be combined with other strategies for a profitable betting experience. A very suitable example of this is value betting, which we have examined in detail in the next article on our website.