Boxing Match Winner Bet
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In the introductory section of our guide to online boxing betting, we briefly described the different bet types available for boxing matches. We will now focus on the Match Winner (Outright Winner) bet, outlining its key aspects and providing some useful boxing betting tips.
The only question bettors need to answer when using this market is who will win the match. That is all; there is no need to predict more difficult variables, such as the method of victory, the exact round, or whether points will be deducted. Although a draw is rare, it is still possible, so some online bookmakers include it among the selection of boxing bet types they provide.
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Using Odds to Determine Winning Chances
When betting on boxing matches, you should look for “value” or, in other words, situations in which you believe you have a better chance of placing the right bet. Personal opinion and judgment are integral parts of online sports betting. However, being able to conduct a quality analysis is also of great importance.
Before publishing any betting odds, online bookmakers conduct their own research. By looking at the odds for a particular fight, you can get an idea of the information the bookie has gathered. Keep in mind that betting odds are based on a dollar stake. So, what do odds of -500 say about a fighter’s chance of winning the match? Those odds imply that the fighter wins five out of six times, or roughly 83 percent. That may look like an almost guaranteed victory, but do not rush to place your bet. Go through the steps we discuss below and wager only if you reach the same conclusion as the bookmaker.
Aspects of a Successful Match Winner Bet
One word: research. There are many important factors to consider before wagering, even on this seemingly simple type of bet. Gathering as much information as possible about the fighters involved is the best way to get started. In this regard, do not underestimate social networks; always keep an eye on them. Sometimes, boxers update their social media profiles before journalists or analysts can publish the news. Even a photo of a bandaged knee or bruised cheekbone can help you outsmart the bookmakers.
Many details can influence the outcome of a fight, but we will focus on three key factors: the boxers’ achievements so far, their fighting styles, and their experience and talent.
Achievements
Becoming familiar with each boxer’s achievements can greatly help you determine who has the better chance of winning a fight. Do not view a fighter’s record as just a list of numbers you can use to calculate his win rate. It is useful to note not only the victories and losses but also the caliber of the opponents involved. Ten wins against low-ranked boxers are not the same as two wins against top fighters. More than once, we have seen a challenger enter a world-title bout only to suffer a crushing defeat at the hands of the reigning champion.
Pay special attention to a fighter’s most recent bouts because his current form is essential when assessing his likelihood of winning. The best sources are trustworthy rankings that show the boxer’s current position and indicate whether he is considered a strong pound-for-pound fighter.
Fighting Style
Just because a boxer is the favorite does not necessarily mean he is the better fighter. There are many cases in which the more talented fighter fails to win. In such bouts, the eventual winner simply has the right tools to neutralize his opponent under the prevailing conditions. For example, a boxer might move perfectly around the ring, read the action well, and land rear-hand punches with pinpoint accuracy. However, if that boxer has a “suspect chin” or “glass jaw” and his opponent breaks through his defense with a single well-placed punch, the momentum of the match can shift in an instant.
Therefore, each fighter’s style is important and should influence your boxing predictions. Reading others’ opinions is not enough; it is far more useful to watch as many matches as possible to understand how a boxer behaves in the ring and how his style matches up against various opponents.
Listing every style is beyond the scope of this article. In general, fighters fall into four categories: swarmers, out-boxers, sluggers, and boxer-punchers. Swarmers are a nightmare for weak-chinned fighters, as they have a high punch output and try to defeat their rivals by applying persistent pressure. Mike Tyson was a typical example of a swarmer.
Swarmers meet their opposite in out-boxers, who always attempt to maintain a gap between themselves and their opponents. The hallmark of this fighting style is fast, long-range punches. Most often, out-boxers win on points or by judges’ decision rather than by knockout. Sluggers are the tanks of the boxing ring; they demonstrate little elegance or mobility, relying instead on brute force and solid defensive technique. Their main drawback is that they are sometimes open to counterpunches because they usually follow predictable punching patterns.
The hardest style to predict is that of the boxer-puncher, as these fighters combine elements of the other three styles. They boast high hand speed, good jab combinations, and significant slugger-type power, although they may lack mobility. Always remain vigilant against them because you never know which trick they will pull out of their sleeve if their opponent gives them the opportunity.
| Fighting Styles in Boxing | ||
|---|---|---|
| Style | Strengths | Weaknesses |
| Swarmer | – good chin – powerful punches – fast footwork | – short reach |
| Out-Boxer | – long-reaching punches – quick movement – strong stamina | lack of power |
| Slugger | – tremendous power – good defensive technique – can withstand a large number of blows | limited mobility |
| Boxer-Puncher | – fast punch combinations – powerful jabs – adaptable to the opponent’s style | tends to neglect defense |
Previous Experience and Talent
We are not going to claim that the ratio of talent to hard work in boxing matches the saying among musicians (1% talent, 99% work), but it is probably close.
To get an accurate idea of the overall talent and ability level of a fighter, it is necessary both to watch him in the ring and to become familiar with his history as a boxer. Fighters with little or no amateur experience are almost certain to struggle when they face a former amateur star, especially one who has won a gold medal at the European Championships, World Championships, or Olympic Games.