How to Avoid Availability Bias
| Updated: November 6, 2025
Perhaps you have come across many football bettors who rely on their instincts when deciding how much to stake or which teams they are going to back. You might not be aware of this, but the main reason this happens is that, when making decisions, gambling enthusiasts are guided by so-called “rules of thumb.” Unfortunately, because of these rules, soccer lovers might not make the best possible move in a given situation.
Without a doubt, gamblers can become successful punters only when their decisions are objective. The problem is that, in most cases, we rely on our emotions when making decisions, which means we are guided by bias. Availability bias describes the tendency of people to use examples that immediately come to mind when evaluating a situation, and these examples can greatly influence the decisions they make. The good news is that once you are aware of this bias, you can address it in soccer betting, which is essential because it can have a lasting effect on your profit over the long term.
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Availability Bias Explained
As far as availability bias is concerned, football bettors should remember that it reflects the inclination of people to overvalue certain events because they leave a lasting impression in memory, or because such events are easier to recall due to their vividness. Although relying on these memories might save us the trouble of checking facts, our decisions are more likely to be unsound.
Thus, a common example of availability bias is that people tend to overvalue the risk associated with distressing events such as floods, earthquakes, and so on.
In a similar vein, when wagering on sports, and soccer in particular, gambling enthusiasts behave the same way. If someone asks you to name a matchup in which the home team won or a game that ended in a draw, you will probably cite a match that took place recently. Most gambling enthusiasts are more likely to recall a matchup in which the home team prevailed. As a result, punters tend to overestimate events that occurred most recently, simply because those results are fresh in their minds. This is exactly what you should try to avoid during your sports betting sessions.
In essence, soccer fans not only overestimate the importance of certain events but also their frequency. The reason is that people, soccer bettors in particular, tend to remember things like the number of penalty shots because such events are easier to memorize and recall. This tendency can dramatically affect the decisions bettors make.
Therefore, it is no surprise that when making over/under bets, most football fans lean toward the over. Once again, the main reason is that availability bias makes them believe this outcome is more likely than it actually is. Similarly, gamblers tend to back teams that are heavy favorites or teams that have performed well recently.
Another widespread tendency among gamblers involves variety. Football fans may be surprised to learn that punters usually make more diverse choices when the available options are presented simultaneously rather than consecutively.
When all is said and done, football bettors should know that calculating actual probabilities is far more important than following gut feelings. Any knowledgeable soccer bettor will tell you that if you want good results, you should not rush to back the favorites; instead, you should go above and beyond to find the most advantageous prices. Even if your intuition urges you to make a simple yes/no choice, always pay close attention to the probabilities.
Put another way, these cognitive biases cause many of the mistakes people make. The good news is that once you become aware of them, you are on the right track to improve your critical thinking and, therefore, become a more successful football bettor.
How to Avoid Availability Bias on Football Events
When it comes to availability bias in football betting, gambling aficionados should remember that they might not always be able to escape it. Still, awareness gives punters the opportunity to challenge the bias and make better decisions more easily. One of the most important steps is to seek multiple perspectives. When you base your decisions on statistics and facts rather than intuition, you are more likely to be correct. Best of all, your choices will be informed, which further improves your results. In this regard, soccer bettors should also devote time to researching additional information.
There is no doubt that the key to mitigating availability bias is to think objectively and logically. Although this might sound easy, it can be difficult to decide on your stakes impartially instead of trusting your intuition.
Let’s say you are watching a football match between Real Madrid and Barcelona. Both teams are considered heavy favorites, which explains why such events attract bettors. However, the odds on these teams often drop sharply in the final minutes of the match, prompting many punters to go against the grain.
Because of availability bias, we might create short-lived trends that do not bring favorable results. When wagering on football, punters are more likely to enjoy better results if they focus on long-term trends, as this is the best way to gain an edge.
One of the best ways to ensure your decisions are objective rather than emotional is to perform a brief analysis. This forces you to justify why you want to place a particular bet. If you complete this task diligently, you may realize that your stake could be a losing one. By doing so, you will be able to make the right decisions, which is exactly what you are aiming for.