Kelly Criterion Football Betting Method
| Updated: November 6, 2025
It is safe to say that football fans go to great lengths to improve their chances of making their betting sessions more lucrative. That is why an ever-growing number of soccer lovers look for a betting method which can help them make accurate assessments of the situation. Without a doubt, this is a far more beneficial approach than relying on gut feeling when deciding the size of your stakes or the type of bet to place.
As it turns out, the Kelly Criterion remains one of the most favored methods of football betting. This is hardly surprising, because the method helps you decide how much money to wager when the odds are in your favor. The best thing about this football betting method is that it promises to deliver higher profits than most other options.
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The Kelly Criterion Explained
Football fans who are determined to broaden their horizons and make their betting sessions even more profitable might be keen on learning more about the Kelly Criterion. In essence, this betting method is applicable to almost all forms of gambling, including wagering on soccer. Additionally, it is used in investing because it helps maintain the balance between risk and reward.
As far as football wagering is concerned, bettors should remember that the Kelly Criterion may be the best tool for optimizing returns. Best of all, it can also make your bankroll less vulnerable. If these are your goals, it is worth exploring how this football betting method works.
One of the first things to clarify about the Kelly Criterion is that, in practice, it is a mathematical formula used to determine how much money you should put at risk in a given situation. A distinctive trait of this method is that it takes your bankroll into account.
From a football betting perspective, the Kelly Criterion helps estimate stake size. In other words, it allows you to figure out how much money to lay down based on the budget you have. You might think using this method will be a piece of cake, but there is more to it. Bettors must pay special attention to the likelihood that their stake will be a winning one.
With the Kelly Criterion you increase your stake when your chances of winning are higher, and decrease it when your chances are lower. This approach allows you to pursue larger returns while keeping potential losses manageable.
Still, bettors should keep in mind that the likelihood of a stake winning cannot be estimated with perfect precision because many factors must be considered. Determining whether a wager is likely to win often relies on personal judgment, which is why many seasoned bettors are skeptical about using the Kelly Criterion.
Novices may struggle with the Kelly Criterion because it forces them to estimate how likely certain events are to occur. This requires both expertise and accuracy.
The Kelly Criterion Formula
Fortunately, bettors with some experience wagering on soccer should be able to estimate probabilities with reasonable precision.
Bettors who want to give the Kelly Criterion a try are advised to use decimal odds. This format makes the calculations much easier.
In short, the formula is ((B x P) – Q) / B. You might find this confusing at first, but identifying the components is straightforward.
In this equation, B represents the multiple of the wager you stand to win. Because we use decimal odds, subtract 1 from the odds value to find B. For example, if you bet $20 at odds of 3.00, a winning stake returns $60, so the multiple is 2.
The next parameter is P, which represents the probability that your stake will win. If you believe the chance of winning is 40%, P is 0.40.
Q reflects the probability that your stake will lose. Continuing the example, if the chance of winning is 40%, the chance of losing is 60%, so Q is 0.60. In other words, subtract P from 1 to get Q.
Using the figures above, the equation becomes ((2 x 0.40) – 0.60) / 2 = 0.1. According to the Kelly Criterion, you should stake 0.1, or 10%, of your gambling bankroll. The positive result indicates that you have an edge and can expect larger rewards.
Many knowledgeable football bettors believe the Kelly Criterion is superior to other staking methods because it significantly reduces risk. However, it can also be demanding, because inaccurate calculations can quickly drain your bankroll.
Expected Value
One of the most important concepts to understand is expected value. When the chance of your stake winning exceeds the implied probability of the odds, the expected value is positive.
For example, a coin toss has a 50% chance of landing heads or tails, so the implied probability is 0.50 and the fair odds are 2.00. If you believe your chance of winning is greater than 50%, the bet offers positive value.
You may wonder why this matters. The Kelly Criterion works only when you place stakes that offer positive value.
Value is subjective, because bettors often disagree about the true probability of an outcome. Nevertheless, you should bet only at odds that sufficiently compensate you for the risk.
This is where the Kelly Criterion helps. If the calculated value is negative, you should avoid the stake, even if you think it has a reasonable chance of winning.
Let’s look at another example to make sure you understand the ins and outs of this football betting method. Suppose you want to bet on a matchup between Real Madrid and Ajax, and the odds are 2.60 and 4.50 respectively. You estimate that Real Madrid have a 65% chance of winning, so the implied probability is 0.65. Plugging these numbers into the Kelly formula gives us -0.05: ((0.50 x 0.65) – 0.35) / 0.50. Because the result is negative, you should avoid the stake, as the odds are not high enough to compensate for the risk.
Pros and Cons of Utilizing the Kelly Criterion for Football Betting
We hope you now understand why so many bettors use the Kelly Criterion during their sports betting sessions. Without a doubt, this method can be the best tool when you are unsure which move is most advantageous. However, although the Kelly Criterion offers many advantages, you should also be aware of its flaws.
One reason many gamblers choose this method is that it is one of the simplest ways to determine what portion of your bankroll to stake. Although it may look demanding at first, once you memorize the formula and learn how to use it, the procedure becomes straightforward. Best of all, you do not need advanced mathematical skills to perform the calculations.
Unlike many other betting methods, the Kelly Criterion accounts for the size of your bankroll. Any staking plan you choose should be based on the amount of money you have set aside for gambling.
Another major advantage is that the Kelly Criterion helps you evaluate the theoretical value of the stake you intend to make. This allows you to strike a balance between protecting your bankroll and growing it. You simply stake more when the value is high and less when the value is low.
This method also lets you decide whether to place a stake with a single glance at the expected value. If the value is negative, that is a clear red flag to avoid the bet.
However, this betting method has its flaws. The hardest part is estimating the true probability that your wager will win. If your estimate is off, your stake size will be wrong, putting your bankroll in jeopardy.
Many experienced bettors also note that the Kelly Criterion can be aggressive. It may call for substantial stakes, which makes some punters hesitant. You might not feel comfortable risking 10% of your bankroll on a single bet; most bettors prefer to risk no more than 5%.
The good news is that you can manage this issue by being more cautious with your assessments. Many bettors choose to stake only a fraction of the amount the Kelly Criterion suggests.
Conclusion
When you research the Kelly Criterion, you will quickly see that experienced bettors have diverse opinions. Some consider it one of the most useful tools for calculating how much to stake, while others think it is useless.
Remember, no betting method guarantees success, and the Kelly Criterion will not ensure consistent wins. You must also be able to spot value bets, which requires expertise. In short, the Kelly Criterion may not dramatically increase your winnings, but it can be useful for managing your funds effectively.