NBA Value Bets

Often, the most reliable and comprehensive source of information about sports betting is experienced bettors. Each of them would tell you that one of the prerequisites for becoming a successful bettor is to learn how to correctly determine the chances of a team finishing as the winner and to compare those chances with the odds provided by bookmakers. These two core tasks underpin the most profitable long-term betting strategy: value betting.

Basically, this strategy involves finding bets with odds that give you an advantage over the bookmaker. If you think an event is more likely to happen than the bookmaker’s odds indicate, you have found a value bet.

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Key Terms Related To Value Betting

Expected value

The expected value of a bet shows the average amount you expect to win. It represents how much you would win or lose if you placed the same bet many times. The easiest way to understand this is to look at an example. If we calculate the odds of calling a card color, there is an even-money chance (decimal odds of 2.00) of guessing ‘black’ or ‘red’ correctly. If you find odds of 2.10 on either black or red, you have a value bet because the 2.10 odds imply a greater return than the true probability.

Let’s look at an example of a basketball bet. Assume a $10 stake on each option:

• $10 on Chicago Bulls scoring more than 100 points at odds of 2.1 provides a potential profit of $11.
• $10 on Chicago Bulls scoring exactly 100 points at odds of 4.0 provides a potential profit of $30.
• $10 on Chicago Bulls scoring less than 100 points at odds of 3.5 provides a potential profit of $25.

The wager is placed on the >100-points option that comes with a probability according to the betting odds on offer of 100 / 2.1 = 47.62% or 0.4762. Conversely, the probability that the >100-points score will not be achieved is the sum of the other two outcomes, 0.25 + 0.2857 = 0.5357. Now, apply the following formula:

(Probability of winning) x (Amount gained per wager) – (Probability of losing) x (Amount lost per wager)

With the Chicago Bulls data, the calculation is:

0.4762 x 11 – 0.5357 x 10 = 5.2328 – 5.357 = -0.1242

This result means that betting on the Bulls in this situation would cost you a little more than 12 cents for every $10 wagered.

True probability

Perhaps you wonder why it is called value betting when the expected value is negative. Remember, a negative EV does not necessarily mean you will lose in the long run. Let’s return to the card example above. The chances of guessing the color are “built-in” unless something is seriously wrong. The odds for predicting the correct color should be 2.00 unless the deck has been tampered with.

So, what exactly is true probability in the field of sports betting? Before publishing odds, online bookmakers try to assess the statistical chance of every possible outcome. The odds they present, however, often stem from subjective opinions and basic guidelines. Determining true probability is therefore essential to successful value betting. The term also appears as sharp lines or sharp odds, which are simply odds that reflect the real statistical chance of a bet.

Bettors who accurately gauge true probability can place wagers at odds that exceed the inefficient lines offered by some sportsbooks. This edge allows them to ultimately beat the bookmaker. Despite the discussion about negative EV and long-run profitability, you are far more likely to turn a profit if you focus on bets with a positive expected value.

NBA Value Betting Strategies

There are two primary strategies for basketball value betting, both of which require calculating the true probability of an event and checking whether the expected value is positive or negative. In addition, we will cover a subjective approach some bettors use that relies on “indicators” with no real connection to the outcome.

Value Betting Based on Odds

The first, and probably the most common, value betting strategy relies on determining the true odds and then finding bookmakers that offer higher ones. We know this can be difficult if you lack experience or free time. Fortunately, many websites aggregate the data and let you compare the odds from multiple bookmakers instantly. We checked one such platform to see the current price for the Philadelphia 76ers to win the NBA Championship. Most online books list them at 7/1 with very little deviation.

However, one sportsbook stands out. At the time of writing, SBK offers the 76ers at 19/2, and the odds are marked as drifting. Drifting odds are usually assigned when a team’s chance of winning has declined, often because heavy money is coming in on the other side of the market or new information (such as an injury to a key player) favors the opponent. Do not jump on these opportunities immediately. First, consider whether the bookmakers you use for reference are known for offering accurate odds on the specific event. These “sharp” books can serve as your baseline; you can then search for less efficient (“soft”) bookmakers that post more generous prices.

Naturally, the more value bets you find, the greater your chance of winning. Undoubtedly, value betting software puts you in a strong position to exploit bookmaker mistakes when they occur. Most programs offer useful features such as:

• Comparison of the odds provided by multiple online bookmakers;
• A single page that displays all relevant information;
• Automatic notification when a value bet above a chosen percentage appears;
• Value bet calculator;
• Warnings about upcoming unfavorable bookmaker actions;
• Tracking of expected values, placed bets, and more.

Value Betting Based on Analysis

This strategy relies on experience and the practical application of thorough analysis of the factors associated with a given sporting event. When searching for value bets, it is extremely helpful to have the most in-depth knowledge possible of the sport on which you plan to wager. Some professional tipsters even make a living by acting as an “oracle” for a particular market within a discipline.

If basketball betting is more than casual entertainment for you and you intend to commit significant time and resources to it, you should narrow your focus. Regardless of the betting method you choose, thorough research and the ability to ignore personal preferences and emotions are essential; otherwise, you will lose money over time. Good knowledge of the chosen market is crucial for a successful betting experience, and, without specialized software, the only way to gain that knowledge is through patience. Experience takes time; there is no shortcut.

Value Betting Based on Personal Prejudices

This approach relies solely on subjective factors. Manifestations of cognitive bias appear in many aspects of daily life, but the main types relevant to sports betting are the gambler’s fallacy, confirmation bias, and ratio bias.

Here is a brief overview of each one. Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to see patterns in past events that have no bearing on a current sporting event. With confirmation bias, bettors look for and use only the facts that support their position and ignore information that contradicts it. Overconfident bettors often fall into this trap. As for the ratio bias, it affects bettors who prefer a larger selection of options to a smaller sample even when the latter carries a higher probability. We believe ratio bias arises because bettors do not always know how to calculate expected probability.

Pros and Cons of NBA Value Betting

Do not worry if you have made it this far and are still unsure what value betting is or whether it can help you achieve a long-term profitable betting experience. Absorbing a large amount of new information is never easy, so we have prepared a brief summary of the Pros and Cons.

Pros of Practicing Value Betting

• Although not as risk-free as arbitrage betting, value bets result in higher profits in the long run because you consistently receive favorable returns on your wagers;
• Value bettors are hard to detect, so they can stay under the radar for a long time;
• Placing a value bet is easier than with other strategies because you place only one wager and there is no need to rush. In addition, you can practice value betting on the go with your phone, which would be difficult, if not impossible, for arbitrage bettors.

Cons of Value Betting

• There is no such thing as a 100% safe bet. Because you are backing only one outcome, you can still lose;
• Although it happens less often, it is still possible to be gubbed by a bookmaker. If you have not encountered the term, gubbing occurs when a bookie limits or closes your account because you have made too much profit on the platform;
• Without an automated value-bet finder, the strategy can be very time-consuming because of the amount of information you must analyze.