NBA Value Bets

Experienced bettors are often among the most reliable and comprehensive sources of information about sports betting. They will tell you that one of the prerequisites for becoming a successful bettor is learning how to accurately assess a team’s chances of winning and compare that probability with the odds offered by bookmakers. These two core tasks underpin the most profitable long-term betting strategy: value betting.

This strategy involves finding bets with odds that give you an advantage over the bookmaker. If you believe an event is more likely to happen than the bookmaker’s odds indicate, you have found a value bet.

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Key Terms Related to Value Betting

Expected value

The expected value of a bet shows the average amount you can expect to win or lose. It represents the average result if you place the same bet many times. The easiest way to understand this concept is through an example. When guessing the color of a card, there is a 50% chance of correctly choosing either “black” or “red,” corresponding to fair decimal odds of 2.00. If you find odds of 2.10 on either color, you have a value bet because the offered odds exceed the fair odds implied by the true probability.

Now consider an example involving a basketball bet. Assume a $10 stake on each option:

• $10 on the Chicago Bulls scoring more than 100 points at odds of 2.1 provides a potential profit of $11.
• $10 on the Chicago Bulls scoring exactly 100 points at odds of 4.0 provides a potential profit of $30.
• $10 on the Chicago Bulls scoring less than 100 points at odds of 3.5 provides a potential profit of $25.

Suppose the wager is placed on the >100-points option. The implied probability based on the available betting odds is 100 / 2.1 = 47.62%, or 0.4762. The other two outcomes have implied probabilities of 25% and 28.57%, respectively. Together, the three implied probabilities total 101.19%, reflecting the bookmaker’s margin.

After removing that margin proportionally, the adjusted probability of the Bulls scoring more than 100 points is approximately 47.06%, while the probability of this outcome not occurring is approximately 52.94%. Now apply the following formula:

(Probability of winning) x (Amount gained per wager) – (Probability of losing) x (Amount lost per wager)

Using the adjusted Chicago Bulls data, the calculation is:

0.4706 x 11 – 0.5294 x 10 = 5.1766 – 5.294 = -0.1174

Based on these margin-adjusted market probabilities, betting on the Bulls in this situation would cost you a little less than 12 cents for every $10 wagered.

True probability

You may wonder why this is called value betting when the expected value in the example is negative. Under these assumptions, the wager is not a value bet. The example demonstrates why the available odds alone do not establish value. You must first estimate the true probability of the outcome. If that estimate is accurate, a negative expected value indicates that the bet is likely to lose money over the long run.

Return to the card example above. The probability of correctly guessing the color is built into the game unless something is seriously wrong. The fair odds for predicting the correct color should be 2.00 unless the deck has been tampered with.

What exactly is true probability in the field of sports betting? Before publishing odds, online bookmakers try to assess the statistical chance of every possible outcome. The odds they present, however, may also reflect subjective judgments and general guidelines. Determining true probability is therefore essential to successful value betting. Odds that closely reflect the actual statistical chance of an outcome are often described as sharp lines or sharp odds.

Bettors who accurately estimate true probability can place wagers at odds that exceed the inefficient lines offered by some sportsbooks. This edge may allow them to ultimately beat the bookmaker. Despite the discussion of negative EV and long-term profitability, you are far more likely to turn a profit if you focus on bets with a positive expected value.

NBA Value Betting Strategies

There are two primary strategies for basketball value betting, both of which require estimating the true probability of an event and determining whether the expected value is positive or negative. We will also cover a subjective approach used by some bettors that relies on “indicators” with no meaningful connection to the outcome.

Value Betting Based on Odds

The first, and probably most common, value betting strategy involves determining the true odds and then finding bookmakers that offer higher odds. This can be difficult if you lack experience or free time. Fortunately, many websites aggregate data and allow you to compare odds from multiple bookmakers instantly. We checked one such platform to see the available price for the Philadelphia 76ers to win the NBA championship. Most online sportsbooks listed them at 7/1, with very little variation.

However, one sportsbook stood out. At the time of writing, SBK offered the 76ers at 19/2, and the odds were marked as drifting. Drifting odds occur when the available price on an outcome lengthens. This may happen because heavy money is coming in on other outcomes or because new information, such as an injury to a key player, has reduced the outcome’s perceived likelihood. Do not jump on these opportunities immediately. First, consider whether the bookmakers you use as references are known for offering accurate odds on the specific event. These “sharp” sportsbooks can serve as your baseline. You can then search for less efficient, or “soft,” bookmakers offering more generous prices.

The more genuine value bets you identify, the more opportunities you have to benefit from favorable pricing over time. Value betting software can put you in a strong position to exploit bookmaker mistakes when they occur. Most programs offer useful features such as:

• Comparison of odds provided by multiple online bookmakers;
• A single page displaying all relevant information;
• Automatic notifications when a value bet above a chosen percentage appears;
• A value bet calculator;
• Warnings about potentially unfavorable bookmaker actions;
• Tracking of expected values and placed bets.

Value Betting Based on Analysis

This strategy relies on experience and the practical application of a thorough analysis of the factors associated with a particular sporting event. When searching for value bets, it is extremely helpful to have the most in-depth knowledge possible of the sport on which you plan to wager. Some professional tipsters even make a living by specializing in a particular market within a sport.

If basketball betting is more than casual entertainment for you and you intend to commit significant time and resources to it, you should narrow your focus. Regardless of the betting method you choose, thorough research and the ability to ignore personal preferences and emotions are essential. Otherwise, you are likely to lose money over time. Strong knowledge of your chosen market is crucial for a successful betting experience. Without specialized software, gaining that knowledge requires patience. Experience takes time, and there is no shortcut.

Value Betting Based on Personal Biases

This approach relies solely on subjective factors. Cognitive biases appear in many aspects of daily life, but the main types relevant to sports betting are the gambler’s fallacy, confirmation bias, and ratio bias.

Here is a brief overview of each one. The gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to see patterns in past events that have no bearing on a current sporting event. With confirmation bias, bettors consider only the facts that support their position while ignoring information that contradicts it. Overconfident bettors often fall into this trap. Ratio bias affects bettors who prefer a larger selection of options to a smaller sample, even when the latter offers a higher probability of success. Ratio bias may arise because bettors do not always compare probabilities accurately.

Pros and Cons of NBA Value Betting

Do not worry if you have made it this far and are still unsure what value betting is or whether it can help you achieve long-term betting profitability. Absorbing a large amount of new information is never easy, so we have prepared a brief summary of the pros and cons.

Pros of Practicing Value Betting

• Although not as risk-free as arbitrage betting, value bets can produce higher profits over the long run because you consistently wager at favorable odds;
• Value bettors may be harder to detect than bettors using more conspicuous strategies, allowing them to stay under the radar for longer;
• Placing a value bet can be easier than using other strategies because you place only one wager and do not need to rush. You can also practice value betting on the go with your phone, which would be difficult, if not impossible, for arbitrage bettors.

Cons of Value Betting

• There is no such thing as a 100% safe bet. Because you are backing only one outcome, you can still lose;
• Although it happens less often, it is still possible to be gubbed by a bookmaker. If you have not encountered the term, gubbing occurs when a bookmaker limits or closes your account because you have earned too much profit on the platform;
• Without an automated value bet finder, the strategy can be very time-consuming because of the amount of information you must analyze.