Football Betting Odds Explained
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Football is easily punters’ favorite sport because it offers a broad variety of betting opportunities. Gambling operators aim to meet bettors’ needs by providing an abundance of wagers. Still, to get the most out of your session, you should first familiarize yourself with all the specifics of football betting. Therefore, take some time to learn the basic football wagers.
Additionally, to understand how football betting works, you should learn about the different odds formats. Even a basic knowledge of odds will help you become a more successful bettor because you will be able to assess the probability that your stake will win and whether it offers good value.
Basics of Football Betting Odds
Football bettors should also know that there are two types of odds: odds against and odds on. Odds against indicate that the potential profit is larger than the stake. With odds on, the amount you can potentially win is smaller than the amount you stake.
When a bet is more likely to lose, it usually comes with odds against. Odds on can be tricky because you risk staking a larger amount than you can win. A common odds-on situation is backing the favorite.
Main Odds Formats
Decimal Odds
This format is common among bettors in Australia, Europe, and Canada. Odds are shown with two decimal places, for example 2.0 or 1.5. To calculate your potential return, simply multiply your stake by the odds. Remember that the return includes your original stake. For instance, a $100 stake at odds of 1.50 returns $150 (100 x 1.50 = 150).
To calculate profit only, subtract 1 from the odds, then multiply by your stake: stake x (odds – 1). Odds of 2.00 represent even money. Odds above 2.00 are odds against, while odds below 2.00 are odds on.
Moneyline Odds
Moneyline, or American odds, is the next
The positive sign shows the profit you would make on a $100 wager. For instance, if a team is listed at +200, a $100 bet would yield $200 in profit. If you stake $200 instead, your total return would be $600. The formula for profit is: stake x (odds / 100).
Conversely, a negative sign indicates how much you must risk to win $100. If the odds are -120, you need to wager $120 to profit $100, for a total return of $220. If you stake $100 at odds of -200, your total return would be $150. The formula is: stake / (odds / 100).
In this format, even money is represented by +100. A negative sign indicates odds on, while a positive sign indicates odds against.
Fractional Odds
Although the format may look intimidating at first, it becomes easy once you understand it. Odds are displayed as fractions, such as 5/1, pronounced “five to one.” This means you would profit five units for every one unit staked. Odds of 6/4 mean you profit six units for every four units staked. To calculate profit, use: stake x (numerator / denominator).
In this format, even money is expressed as 1/1. If the numerator is larger than the denominator, the odds are against, meaning the potential profit exceeds the stake. If the denominator is larger, the odds are on, indicating you risk more than you can win.
What is Implied Probability
Probability can be expressed as a percentage or a decimal. At 100%, an event is certain to occur, while 0% means it will not. In decimal form, probabilities range from 0 to 1.0.
Sometimes probability is easy to calculate, as with a coin toss, where each of the two outcomes has a 50% chance. Football betting is different because many variables come into play, so bettors cannot estimate probability with complete accuracy.
However, gamblers can use odds to determine the implied probability of a specific outcome. This helps them identify the bookmaker’s margin and decide whether a wager offers good value.
For example, if a match is priced at odds of 2.00, the implied probability is 1 divided by 2.00, which equals 0.5. Multiply by 100 to convert to a percentage: 50%.
We chose this simple example for clarity. If the true probability were exactly 50%, the bet would have no edge because your chance of winning equals your chance of losing.
What is Value in Football Betting
Consider again a coin toss with equal chances for heads and tails. Suppose a bookmaker offers odds of 3.00 on heads and 1.50 on tails. If you stake $10, a winning bet on heads returns $30, while a winning bet on tails returns $15.
Which option is better? Clearly, backing heads is more profitable. The wager has positive value because the implied probability is lower than the actual 50% chance of winning.
The implied probability for heads is 1 / 3.00 = 0.3333, or 33.33%. For tails, 1 / 1.50 = 0.6667, or 66.67%.
This example illustrates why identifying wagers with positive value is essential: only those bets can deliver profit over time.
Finding the Best Value
Do not automatically dismiss favorites. Some bettors assume that low odds cannot provide positive value, but what matters is the relationship between the odds and the true probability.
When searching for value, consider as many factors as possible that could influence the match. Otherwise your judgments may be off. Always factor in injuries, schedules, team form, and other relevant information.
Finally, open accounts with more than one online sportsbook. This way, you can compare the odds each bookmaker offers and choose the most advantageous price. Even small differences can affect your long-term profit, so spending a few minutes on comparison shopping will pay off.