How to Predict NFL Results

Perhaps the hardest part of sports betting is learning how to predict game results accurately. With the NFL, that can be even harder than with most other sports because there are myriad factors to consider. There are many ways to predict the outcome of an NFL game.

There are countless factors related to teams and individual players, including their key strengths and weaknesses. You can also use statistics to predict the most likely outcome of a game. Additionally, you should not overlook the role that trends play.

At first, it might be hard to know where to start. After all, making accurate predictions is challenging, especially when it comes to NFL results. We suggest starting by studying the various factors that affect the game.

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Various Factors That Affect the Game

The first type of factor you should examine is everything that may affect a team’s overall quality and value. This includes evaluating every aspect of what makes a team competitive. All of this is necessary for any NFL bettor who wants to see the full picture and make an informed prediction.

Team Quality

The quality of every individual player is important. Many NFL bettors focus only on the quarterback when they should be evaluating every player. Of course, this does not mean that the quarterback is unimportant, but his performance is closely connected to that of the left and right tackles. Naturally, the defensive players also matter greatly.

This leads to another factor: team balance. The balance we are discussing refers to the distribution of talent throughout the roster. If there is only one star player and everyone else is merely adequate, the team may struggle, especially if that star gets injured. A balanced team needs capable players throughout the roster to have the best chance of winning.

Even a team of ordinary players can have a better chance if the roster is evenly matched, particularly when the team has a strong sense of unity. You can determine whether this is the case by studying the team carefully and examining the relationships between key players. A team that works well together can outperform one with better athletes but less unity.

To predict a team’s results accurately, you must also be fully aware of its greatest strengths and biggest weaknesses. For instance, if two teams are strong on defense but weak on offense, it may be wiser to bet on the under rather than pick a winner.

A team’s style is also very important. If a team’s style emphasizes offense or defense, that will affect the game. This approach depends on the coach, but it can also reveal a lot about the coach’s relationship with the squad. If the players are more comfortable with an offensive style but the coach prefers a defense-oriented approach, the players may underperform. A team might have plenty of star players who simply do not fit its style.

The coaching staff is equally critical. The head coach is responsible for pregame planning and postgame analysis, keeping morale high, and leading the team. However, the offensive and defensive coordinators are also vital because they call plays and determine defensive schemes.

How a team handles pressure is another factor that can greatly affect the game, yet it is often overlooked by NFL bettors. A seemingly perfect team can crumble under pressure, while some teams perform best under pressure. Knowing how a team reacts when the stakes are high can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Consistency is also a key factor in NFL betting. If a team has consistently won or lost during the season, it may be easier to predict the outcome of its next game. If the team shows no consistency, it will be harder to forecast whether it will win or lose. Of course, many other factors can help you in such cases.

Game Conditions

The conditions in which a game is played can have a significant impact on players, especially when it comes to the weather. It is worth reviewing the history of the team you want to back to see how it performs in adverse conditions.

The venue can affect a team’s play as well. In fact, the home team wins about 60% of NFL games, so home-field advantage definitely matters. This is especially true if the road team may be overwhelmed by the venue. For instance, a stadium like CenturyLink Field can be intimidating.

A team’s schedule is also an important factor. If the road team has traveled from the West Coast to the East Coast and has to play in the early afternoon, it is more likely to underperform. Even athletes can experience jet lag, which is why this factor is worth considering.

Additional Factors

A team’s recent results can be a good indicator of what the future holds. For instance, if a team has been winning recently, its players may experience increased motivation and confidence. Conversely, if the team has been losing frequently, its players may perform worse than usual. However, some teams perform even better after a close loss because they are motivated to bounce back.

Motivation itself is another important factor. If a team is playing a longtime rival, its motivation will affect the game. Players may be more likely to perform better than usual. However, some players might get too fired up and lose control of their emotions, which can lead to outbursts. This depends on the players’ history.

Naturally, injuries will also have a significant effect on the game. Always check injury reports before placing a bet. If a key player is injured and cannot play, the team may suffer. Some teams, however, have capable substitutes who might even perform better because they are eager to prove themselves.

As you can see, these factors are closely connected, which is why it is important not to ignore any of them. When it comes to predicting NFL games, no detail is too small. Football is a complex sport with plenty of elements to consider.

Using Statistics

Statistics can be very useful when trying to determine the outcome of an NFL game. They can help you uncover a team’s true strengths and weaknesses and make it easier to compare the overall quality of teams. Statistics can help you make a more informed betting decision. Here are some basic NFL statistics you should consider when trying to predict results.

Points Per Game

This is one of the simpler NFL statistics. The PPG statistic tells you how many points a team has scored throughout the season, divided by the number of games it has played. This statistic is especially useful when betting on totals, as you can compare points scored per game with points allowed per game to gain a better understanding of a team’s capabilities.

Yards Per Game

The number of yards per game gained or allowed by a team is another easy-to-understand statistic. On its own, it does not tell you much, but it can be very useful when considered alongside the team’s style of play. You can also examine statistics for rushing yards and passing yards.

Third Down Efficiency

This statistic can be very informative on its own. A third down is often a team’s final chance to maintain possession, so its ability to convert on third down can reveal a lot about its quality. The better a team is at converting third downs, the more likely it is to win. Strong third-down conversion percentages are often in the high 40s.

Sacks

The number of sacks recorded by a player or team can give NFL bettors additional insight into a team’s quality. It can also be indicative of overall performance and how the team might perform in the future. However, this statistic should not be the only one you consider.

Tackles and Interceptions

Both statistics can provide useful information about a team’s defense, but neither is particularly useful on its own. For instance, a team with a high tackle count might have a weakness elsewhere and rely on tackles to compensate. On the other hand, there are relatively few interceptions per game, which means you cannot read too much into that number.

Advanced Statistics

By using more advanced statistics, you can learn more about a team’s offensive and overall quality. Two statistics that can tell you a lot about an offense are pass yards per attempt and team yards per carry. To gauge overall strength, you can also look at yards per play differential, yards after catch, turnover differential, and negative pass play percentage.

The Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is a statistics-based mathematical model. It allows you to calculate how likely an event is to occur a certain number of times within a set period, provided that the event occurs at a constant average rate. Otherwise, this model may not be appropriate.

You can use it to estimate how many touchdowns a player will score during the next quarter, game, season, or another defined period. This type of probability model assumes that each period is independent. If you are calculating how many touchdowns a player will score per quarter, scoring in the first quarter does not directly determine whether the player will score in the second. Although this assumption is not entirely realistic for several reasons, the model can still provide an estimate worth considering.

The required math may be challenging, but the model can produce useful estimates.

Using Trends

To predict the result of an NFL game, you can rely not only on statistics but also on trends. Spotting and using trends may be difficult for a beginner, but we will outline a few basic trends that bettors can consider.

First Half Scoring Trends

You can often see a clear difference between a team that has scored in the first half and one that has fallen behind. The team that scores early often ends up winning, especially if the other team falls far behind. When a team scores early, it establishes a lead that may be easier to build upon than it is for the opposing team to overcome.

As tension builds in the second half, many teams make more mistakes while trying to score, so a slow start can end up costing a team dearly.

Generally, teams that score frequently in the first half are considered strong and may have an advantage over opponents with lower first-half scoring numbers. This makes the trend useful to consider.

Sharp Line Moves

When a line moves sharply and the odds change suddenly, it is usually a sign that professional bettors have placed substantial wagers. Of course, this depends on when you examine the lines and odds. For instance, noticeable changes shortly after the opening lines are posted are often attributed to professional bettors.

Another possible sign of professional betting activity is when point-spread numbers move away from the most common winning margins. It takes a lot of money to shift those numbers, so this can indicate heavy action from serious bettors.

Sometimes, professional bettors wait for the public to move a line to a certain number and then bet late against the flow. A significant change in the margin later on could therefore signal that seasoned NFL bettors have placed substantial wagers.

Coaching Trends

As you know, a good coach can make all the difference. A coach can help a team earn more victories than before or just as easily contribute to the decline of a successful team. This is why it is extremely important to consider a team’s coach when betting on the NFL.

If you plan to bet on a certain team, examine its preseason performance, especially if it has a new coach. This may give you insight into what to expect during the regular season.

Home Underdog Trends

Some NFL bettors always back the more popular team. This is unwise because popular teams can lose as well. Many people overlook that possibility, which can create a betting opportunity.

When the more popular team is on the road and the underdog is playing at home, you might find favorable odds. You need to be highly selective when using this trend because it is difficult to know exactly when it will have a tangible effect. Nevertheless, opportunities may arise because the general public often overlooks the fatigue and stress that traveling can inflict on a team.

Bye Week Trends

Some strategies suggest that you should always bet on a team’s first game after its bye week. That is not necessarily wise because there may be no reliable way to tell how a team will perform after the break.

If you identify a definite trend in a team’s post-bye-week games, betting based on that data may be reasonable. For instance, some teams seem rejuvenated after their break and perform better than usual, while others are off their game and consistently lose their first post-bye-week contest. However, if no clear trend exists, it is best not to base your wager on this factor alone.

Bounce-Back Trends

This trend is important to follow after the team you want to bet on has lost. Look at how the team has responded to similar losses in the past. For instance, if the loss was against a major rival, the team may be more likely to respond with renewed motivation, but you should still examine how it reacted to comparable defeats.

At other times, losses can be heartbreaking and damage a team’s spirit and confidence, leading to a losing streak. Be very careful when analyzing the data, and remember to consider all the other factors as well.

Conclusion

There are many ways to predict NFL results, and they all require time and effort. You will need to learn how to analyze every relevant piece of data concerning the game. It may be difficult, but it is not impossible, especially if you use the factors, statistics, and trends listed above.