Skip to main content

NFL Betting Systems Explained

NFL Betting Systems ExplainedWhile there are no NFL-specific betting systems, per se, there are some sports betting systems that are more useful when it comes to NFL betting in particular. However, as this is a complete guide to the NFL betting world, we will introduce you to most betting systems you can encounter. Of course, you can also choose to implement any of them or make your own betting system.

You can apply most systems to NFL betting, especially when it comes to even money bets. As you know, those are not most NFL bets you can place, so here we will help you find a system that works best with your betting style. There are three main types of betting systems and by learning more about them, you will be able to navigate through the online betting world with much more ease.

Types of Betting Systems

Types of Betting SystemsBefore we explain the separate betting systems, we will go over the main types of betting systems that exist. We have found that this is a nice introduction to betting systems as the types are basically the basis for the different systems. Once you understand the fundamental make-up of the different betting systems, you will find it much easier to understand the rest of this article.

Positive progression betting is the first type we can distinguish. The idea here is that a gambler should increase their bet after a win. It is based on the idea of streaks and specifically winning ones. That is why this strategy can be considered quite faulty, especially if you are applying the so-called technique of ‘letting it ride’. The reason for this is that you are basically risking only one bet when in reality you are risking all of your winnings.

Negative progression betting is another type. Here, the idea is that you should increase your bet after a loss. The reason for this is that if you double your bet after you have lost and you win, you will break even. So, if you keep losing, you keep doubling and doubling, and in the end, you will end up with your money right back in your pocket.

However, as you can tell, this is faulty, to say the least as it is based on the idea that you are bound to win. That is an unreliable betting method and you might run out of money before you manage to win anything back.

The insurance betting system is a much safer approach. This type of system requires you to decrease your bet after each loss. This way, if you have hit a losing streak, you will lose less money. Of course, you should also know when to quit if you have hit a losing streak. Sometimes it is simply better to stop and come back with a clear mind.

Progressive Betting Systems

Progressive Betting SystemsThese are systems that specify exactly how you should bet in different situations. They give you direct instructions on how big your bets should be, what you should do if you win, and what you should do if you lose. That also depends on whether you have been winning or losing, as well as how many times. Your bankroll’s size also matters as everything these systems offer is proportional to it.

There are different progressions that may be employed by punters depending on their betting style and bankroll. There are negative and positive progressions but within those two types, there is much variety. Below, you can see how different these systems can be, despite having the same basis.

NFL Betting Systems

NFL Betting SystemsThere are some betting systems that have been widely used for all forms of gambling including NFL betting. You can also use them when you are betting on your favorite team. Here, we will briefly explain exactly how they work and how functional they are in practice.

Martingale System

Martingale SystemThis is a negative progression type of betting system. It is basically exactly like what we described above, however, it has evolved with time. At the moment, it consists of the following rules – double the bet if you lose, and alter your bet if you win. The idea here is to not only recuperate your losses but also make some profit. Though, the chances for profits with this system are not too great.

Fibonacci System

Fibonacci SystemThis system is based on the Fibonacci sequence, disregarding the 0 at the beginning. The sequence goes like 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on. In this case, 1 stands for 1 unit which is the size of your predetermined bet. As we have already mentioned in a previous article, your bet size should be about 2-3% of your total bankroll. You use this system when you start losing and after one win you go back to betting a single unit until you lose again. To use this system, you would need to have quite the bankroll though.

D’Alembert System

D’Alembert SystemThis system is based on the idea that there is equilibrium in everything and wins and losses in NFL betting are no exception. The point is that you should win about as often as you lose. According to it, you should increase your bet by one unit after losing and decrease it by one unit after winning. The assumption that you will win about as many times as you will lose is not quite correct though, but it is more so for even money bets. So, we suggest sticking to those if you are using this system.

Paroli System

Paroli SystemThis system is also most effective with even money bets. It requires you to start off with a bet of one unit, then after you win, you double your stake. After winning three times in a row and doubling your bet each time, you drop back down to one unit. If you lose at any point, drop back down to one unit as well.

Kelly Criterion

Kelly CriterionThis system is quite often employed by punters as it is well-known in the industry. It almost surely leads to greater profit in the long run. This is a mathematically sound system that requires the use of a few formulas. Naturally, you do not need to be a rocket scientist to understand them and use them, so do not worry. At its core, this system involves the value of the odds, the probability to succeed and the probability to fail. Once you have used the system, you will end up with either a positive or a negative number. If it is positive, then you should consider placing a bet, and if it is not, then you should refrain from betting. We will go into more detail in an article dedicated to this system.

Making Your Own System

Making Your Own SystemIn order to be able to create your own NFL betting system, you will need to have gained some experience. Additionally, you will need to be more familiar with most betting systems in order to be able to draw from their wisdom. This means that you need to have knowledge of the entire NFL betting sphere in general.

This also means that you will need to know all there is to know about the NFL. Statistics, analysis, history – all of it will be required for an adequate system. You will need to be quite the fan to achieve this feat. Keeping up with all information available is not all that easy nowadays, so take that into account before you decide to create your own system.

Additionally, you will need to find reliable websites for that information. Both, day-to-day information pertinent to the game, and statistics. There are specialized websites for NFL statistics but they are not all legit, so be careful. Naturally, you will need to make sure that the sportsbook you have picked is also fully legitimate.

Now comes the actual creation of a system and it starts with the design of a formula or criteria. This is done by synthesizing everything you consider essential to the game and sports betting and understanding the relations between factors. After that, you can put your system into something more practical like a spreadsheet, so you can keep track of your results more easily and see if they are consistent.

You can check if your system works by challenging it mathematically or simply checking with the spreadsheet you have made. You can make hypothetical bets and see if it works or you can try placing small bets and try it out for real. Keep in mind that betting based on an untested system is an additional risk factor.

In any case, you will have the chance to see if your system has any flaws. You should not get discouraged if it does, as this is not an easy task. Simply keep working on it until it becomes perfect for you. Naturally, there is no shame in giving it up either, especially if it becomes too much of a challenge.


ConclusionRegardless of whether you are using one of the many available betting systems or you have created your own, it is important to have the self-control to stick to it. In order to properly use a system, you will need to maintain your cool and keep betting according to the plan. This is why it is definitely better to bet with a system than without. It is much easier to slip when you are wagering bet for bet with no system or strategy. So, systems can improve your profits but they can also significantly decrease your losses. This is why they are definitely worth your consideration.