NFL Betting Strategies
They are based on different factors, so you will be able to find the one that most suits your betting style. It is also worth remarking that there is a large proficiency difference between basic and advanced strategies. In this article, we will shed light on some of the most common strategies in the NFL betting sphere and show you how to pick the one that most suits you.
The Right Time for Betting Strategies
Not everything depends on your level of experience, though. As we said, strategies are based on different things, so your betting style matters quite a lot. Of course, you will also need to decide which factors are most trustworthy and whether they are reliable enough for you to use a strategy based upon them.
Basic NFL Betting Strategies
Basic Value Betting
This can be simply illustrated if you imagine a bet that you really wish to place but the odds are such that you would basically be risking 10,000 to win 100. Of course, this is an exaggeration but it gets our point across.
In the opposite scenario, you would be risking 100 to win 10,000. That is definitely a bet worth placing, though, usually, such a bet would be quite exceptional and a sportsbook would hardly ever offer it. However, the point here is that, if there is no value in a bet, regardless of how good it is, it may not be worth placing.
The history between teams is one of those factors. This can affect the game because if the teams have had multiple encounters previously and one of the teams has experienced only losses from those games, that same losing team may be out for revenge.
Another type of history to consider is medical. If a player has only recently recovered from an injury, that may affect their performance. If a key player is missing because of an injury, that will affect the whole team’s performance.
It is also important to consider the distance the road team has had to travel. Long journeys usually have a negative effect on players. You can also check if the team has previously had to travel such a distance and how they performed afterwards.
The schedule of a team can also largely affect the game. If a team has been busy lately, players will most likely be tired. Of course, that also depends on whether the team has had some rough games or it has had it easy.
It also largely matters whether there is something at stake for either team. If they have hopes for the playoffs, then they are more likely to give it their all. If there is more at stake for one team than the other, then they are more likely to give a better performance. If both teams are unmotivated, then this factor becomes obsolete.
Using Public Opinion for NFL Betting
The contrarian strategy is based on the idea that the majority of sports bettors is unqualified and usually makes the wrong call. This is especially true when it comes to very hard calls that require extensive knowledge of the game. That is why sometimes betting against the public can be a good strategy.
However, you can use public opinion to your advantage in another way – by following the opinions of experienced sports bettors. You can find out what they are betting on by paying close attention to the odds and lines at all times. This is based on the assumption that such bettors will place bets so large that the bookmakers are forced to change the odds and lines. This betting strategy is flawed, though, as, by the time you notice these changes, the bet may no longer be worth making. Additionally, it is quite hard to spot these fluctuations and it takes a lot of time and effort.
Knowing when to bet home underdogs is much more profitable. As you know, the public prefers betting on the favorites and so sportsbooks set the odds and lines accordingly. So, if you find the right time to place a bet on the underdog, you will stand to make quite the profit. This strategy can only be useful once in a while, though, it cannot be applied every time. It is all about finding the right time to use it.
Advanced NFL Betting Strategies
Let us say that the Packers are playing the Broncos. You have the opportunity to place an early bet on the Packers as the favorites on a 10-point spread, and you decide to take it, you will notice that the majority of other punters will do the same. So much so, that the odds and lines will more. Let us say that the Packers are now 12-point favorites and it is the day before the game.
This gives you the opportunity to place a bet on the Broncos at +12 and by doing so, you are betting a middle. This way you either win both wagers, win one wager and push the other, or win one wager and lose the other. In any case, you have at least one win. That is the sweet spot all punters desire. Of course, such situations do not always arise but by being vigilant and attentive, you will be able to spot them and take advantage of them.
This is a high risk/high reward bet or low risk/low reward one depending on a few factors. If you place such a bet early on, before the start of the season, you will see some unbelievable odds. That is so because it is clearly the worst time to make an accurate prediction. However, you may place a bet based simply on the potential value it holds.
If you decide to make your bet near the beginning of the season, you will have a slightly better idea of what might happen and who might win. It is still not ideal, though, so implementing the same aforementioned strategy may be a good idea. However, at this point, extensive knowledge of the game comes into play as well. If you follow each team closely, you will be able to tell if they have been training more or less, whether they are motivated enough or not, and many other factors that will ultimately make them winners or losers.
Betting during the season gives you a chance to make a far more accurate prediction. This means that you will be able to put more money down as many unknown factors will have been cleared up. Of course, there are always some variables but that cannot be helped. What you can do is try to anticipate the unexpected. However, the easier it becomes to tell who will win, the harder it becomes to find value in these bets.
NFL Season Win Totals
It is an over/under type of bet and as such, the lines and odds change as time progresses and more information becomes public. The amount of bets placed also matters and will have an effect as well. This is why it might be better for you to place an early bet. The more you wait, the harder it becomes to find value.
However, betting early on comes with certain conditions. You can rarely tell what the total score of a team will be just based on their previous performances unless they are highly consistent. Since that is not very reliable, we suggest looking at the lines and odds carefully and basing your wager on that. Sometimes sportsbooks will underestimate or overestimate a team and therefore give you a wonderful betting opportunity.
Despite that, as we have already stated, placing bets based solely on the odds and lines is risky. So, placing a large bet would definitely not be wise in this case. Remember, that money will be on hold all the way until the end of the season.
If you prefer making bets based on information and analysis, then you should consider betting later on, after the start of the season. When you see the performance of a team you can tell, even from their first game, whether they have improved or not. Then, you can make a much more accurate assessment.
Of course, by that time, finding value will be quite hard. Making a good bet is what matters here, though, so just make sure that the bet you wish to place has a positive outlook. As we said, there are a number of factors to consider in any case and you need to base your assessment on at least a portion of them.
As we already mentioned, taking a team’s history into consideration is very important. Their performance in the past can be highly indicative of what their performance will be in the future. Especially so, if there are no major changes to the team. If there is a change in management, you will need to take that into account too.
Of course, the general quality of a team is also essential to the equation, so you will need to have studied it and its players very closely. This way, you will have a reliable basis for your opinion. Naturally, as in previous strategies, you will need to take into account the schedule of the team as well as the public opinion on the matter.
Basic or Advanced
Despite that, even some experienced punters prefer the more basic strategies. There is no need to overcomplicate things after all. Mastering a basic strategy can lead to great payouts. Even though they are not advanced, in the hands of a master, they are just as good.
If, on the other hand, you are a bit of a newbie at all this but you like a challenge, trying out some of the advanced strategies might be fun. Naturally, you would need to keep your wagers at a minimum, but doing that will nonetheless bring even more thrill to the games.
However, you might not be a big fan of low wagers – high-rollers will need to take into consideration the risk factors involved here. For instance, it would not be wise for them to use strategies that include betting on futures or season totals long before the beginning of the season.
Punters who have been in the game long enough will know right away which of these strategies suits them best. Being a successful bettor includes figuring out your own strategies too, so you might want to combine some of the ones we have listed here. In any case, we hope you could take away something from this.