NFL Betting Strategies
| Updated: November 10, 2025
If you truly wish to be a successful NFL bettor, then you need to learn about all the different strategies you can employ to make your betting sessions more profitable. There is no guaranteed way to win, but with the help of these strategies you can place more winning bets than losing ones.
They are based on different factors, so you will be able to find the one that best suits your betting style. It is also worth noting that proficiency differs significantly between basic and advanced strategies. In this article, we will shed light on some of the most common strategies in the NFL betting sphere and show you how to pick the one that suits you best.
Best Rated Bookmakers for United States-
Claim
$1000
Match Bonus9.718+ New customers only. 100% match bonus up to $1000. Min deposit $50. 10x rollover requirement. Promocode: MYB100 -
Claim
$250
Match Bonus9.4Join Bovada, make your first deposit and instantly receive a 50% Sports Welcome Bonus up to $250. -
Claim
$500
Match Bonus9.3Get a 100% Bonus, up to $500, to wager in the Xbet Sportsbook when you sign up and fund your new account with minimum of $45. Be sure to use promocode XB100 to claim this offer on your first deposit. 7x rollover requirement prior withdrawal. -
Claim
$200
Match Bonus9.2The bonus and the deposit need to be rolled over 4x at min. odds of -200 (1.5) before a payout is possible Max. $200 of every bet count towards the rollover. -
Claim
$150
Match Bonus9.1Get a 150% Bonus, up to $150, to wager in the BetUSR Sportsbook. Deposit minimum $100 and wager at least $500 within 30 days of registerening your account and you will automatically qualify for $150 CASH BONUS with just 1x wagering requirement.
The Right Time for Betting Strategies
You need to know when to employ a strategy. It is not as simple as jumping into NFL betting and using the first strategy you like; you need experience in different areas. If you are a more experienced bettor, you will be able to tell exactly which strategy you should use and when to use it. However, if you are a newbie, you might have a hard time understanding and applying even the basic strategies.
Not everything depends on your level of experience, though. As we said, strategies are based on different factors, so your betting style matters quite a lot. Of course, you will also need to decide which factors are most trustworthy and whether they are reliable enough for you to use a strategy based on them.
Basic NFL Betting Strategies
As with any other aspect of betting, there is a simpler way and a more complex way. The simpler way is to choose basic strategies and perfect them. There are many basic NFL betting strategies, and here we will cover the most popular ones.
Basic Value Betting
At its core, this strategy revolves around whether a bet is worth making at all, and not so much whether it will be successful. This might sound counterintuitive, but it is actually a good strategy to use when you are just starting out. Of course, this does not imply that you should always place a bet when the odds are good. It simply means that you should consider whether there is value in a certain wager.
This can easily be illustrated if you imagine a bet that you really wish to place, but the odds require you to risk 10,000 to win 100. Of course, this is an exaggeration, but it gets the point across.
In the opposite scenario, you would risk 100 to win 10,000. That is definitely a bet worth placing, though such an opportunity would be exceptional, and a sportsbook would hardly ever offer it. The point is that, if there is no value in a bet, regardless of how good it looks, it may not be worth placing.
Situational Handicapping
This strategy is based on your knowledge of the game and the factors that may affect it. We have already mentioned that such knowledge is essential for being a successful sports bettor of any sort. Without it, you would not be able to make accurate predictions. However, this strategy relies on several specific factors.
The history between teams is one such factor. If the opponents have met multiple times and one of them has lost every game, that team may be out for revenge.
Another type of history to consider is medical. If a player has recently recovered from an injury, that may affect their performance. If a key player is missing because of an injury, that will affect the whole team’s performance.
It is also important to consider the distance the road team has had to travel. Long journeys usually have a negative effect on players. You can also check if the team has previously traveled such a distance and how it performed afterward.
The schedule of a team can also greatly affect the game. If a team has been busy lately, players will most likely be tired. Of course, that also depends on whether the team has had some rough games or has had it easy.
It also matters whether there is something at stake for either team. If they have hopes for the playoffs, then they are more likely to give it their all. If there is more at stake for one team than the other, that team is more likely to deliver a better performance. If both teams are unmotivated, this factor becomes irrelevant.
Using Public Opinion for NFL Betting
This strategy revolves around the public’s opinion. You can either go against it or follow it. It may seem strange that two opposite approaches can both be useful, but we will explain why.
The contrarian strategy is based on the idea that the majority of sports bettors are unqualified and usually make the wrong call. This is especially true when it comes to difficult calls that require extensive knowledge of the game. That is why sometimes betting against the public can be a good strategy.
However, you can also use public opinion to your advantage by following the choices of experienced sports bettors. You can find out what they are betting on by paying close attention to the odds and lines at all times. This is based on the assumption that such bettors will place wagers so large that the bookmakers are forced to change the odds and lines. This approach is flawed because, by the time you notice these changes, the bet may no longer be worth making. Additionally, spotting these fluctuations is difficult and takes a lot of time and effort.
Favorites/Underdogs
Some bettors think that if a team is a favorite, there is nothing else to consider. They simply place their bets on the favorite and expect to win without so much as thinking twice. This means they put their trust in the sportsbook and ignore any other option. Sometimes, that is correct and you could make small but consistent profits. However, a much more interesting strategy is doing the opposite.
Knowing when to bet home underdogs is much more profitable. As you know, the public prefers betting on the favorites, and sportsbooks set the odds and lines accordingly. So, if you find the right time to place a bet on the underdog, you stand to make quite a profit. This strategy is only useful once in a while; it cannot be applied every time. It is all about finding the right moment to use it.
Advanced NFL Betting Strategies
In reality, if you do more research and look at advanced statistics for any of the basic strategies, you are already using an advanced strategy. Basically, what makes strategies advanced as opposed to basic is the effort they require and the experience needed to use them. If you are already putting in the effort and using advanced techniques, then you are already there. Of course, there are more specific strategies we will discuss as well.
NFL Middles
This is a more advanced strategy because you need to be familiar with the game and with how sports betting works overall. You can use this strategy only in very specific situations. Betting middles essentially means wagering on both sides. This is possible because, as more bets are placed, sportsbooks change the odds and lines, creating new opportunities.
Let us say that the Packers are playing the Broncos. You have the opportunity to place an early bet on the Packers as the favorites on a 10-point spread, and you decide to take it. The majority of other bettors do the same, and the odds and lines move. Imagine that the Packers are now 12-point favorites and it is the day before the game.
This gives you the opportunity to place a bet on the Broncos at +12 and, by doing so, you are betting a middle. This way, you either win both wagers, win one wager and push the other, or win one wager and lose the other. In any case, you have at least one win. That is the sweet spot all bettors desire. Of course, such situations do not always arise, but by being vigilant and attentive, you will be able to spot them and take advantage of them.
NFL Futures
We touched upon futures when explaining the different types of bets you can place on the NFL. As you should know by now, they are incredibly hard to get right. However, if you are good enough to make the right prediction, you can win a fortune.
This is either a high-risk/high-reward or low-risk/low-reward bet, depending on a few factors. If you place such a wager early on, before the start of the season, you will see some unbelievable odds. That is because it is clearly the worst time to make an accurate prediction. However, you may place a bet simply because of its potential value.
If you decide to make your bet near the beginning of the season, you will have a slightly better idea of what might happen and who might win. It is still not ideal, though, so implementing the same strategy mentioned above may be a good idea. At this point, extensive knowledge of the game comes into play as well. If you follow each team closely, you will be able to tell whether it has been training harder, whether it is motivated, and many other factors that will ultimately make it a winner or a loser.
Betting during the season gives you a chance to make a far more accurate prediction. This means that you will be able to put more money down, as many unknown factors will have been cleared up. Of course, there are always some variables, but that cannot be helped. What you can do is try to anticipate the unexpected. However, the easier it becomes to tell who will win, the harder it becomes to find value in these bets.
NFL Season Win Totals
Season win totals are challenging in more ways than one. That is why the betting strategy associated with them is considered advanced. This type of bet is available long before the start of the season and remains available throughout. As you may have guessed, it is based on how many games a certain team will win during the season.
It is an over/under type of bet and, as such, the lines and odds change as time progresses and more information becomes public. The volume of bets placed also matters and will have an impact as well. This is why it might be better for you to place an early wager. The longer you wait, the harder it becomes to find value.
However, betting early comes with certain conditions. You can rarely tell what the total score of a team will be based only on its previous performances unless it has been highly consistent. Since that is not very reliable, we suggest looking at the lines and odds carefully and basing your wager on them. Sometimes sportsbooks will underestimate or overestimate a team and therefore give you a great betting opportunity.
Despite that, as we already stated, placing bets based solely on the odds and lines is risky. Placing a large amount would definitely not be wise in this case. Remember that your money will be on hold until the end of the season.
If you prefer making bets based on information and analysis, consider betting later on, after the start of the season. When you see a team’s performance, you can tell, even from its first game, whether it has improved. Then, you can make a much more accurate assessment.
Of course, by that time, finding value will be quite hard. Making a good bet is what matters here, though, so just make sure that the wager you wish to place has a positive outlook. As we said, there are many factors to consider, and you need to base your assessment on at least some of them.
As we already mentioned, taking a team’s history into consideration is very important. Its performance in the past can be highly indicative of what its performance will be in the future, especially if there are no major changes. If there is a change in management, you will need to take that into account too.
Of course, the general quality of a team is also essential to the equation, so you will need to study it and its players very closely. This way, you will have a reliable basis for your opinion. Naturally, as in previous strategies, you will need to take into account the team’s schedule as well as public opinion on the matter.
Basic or Advanced
Picking a strategy depends on a few factors, such as your experience, betting style, bankroll, and overall level as a bettor. Betting on the NFL may seem easy, but it definitely is not, especially if you want to profit from it. You need to be a skilled bettor and a die-hard fan to have the best chance possible.
Despite that, even some experienced bettors prefer the more basic strategies. There is no need to overcomplicate things, after all. Mastering a basic strategy can lead to great payouts. Even though they are not advanced, in the hands of a master they are just as good.
If, on the other hand, you are new to all this but you like a challenge, trying out some of the advanced strategies might be fun. Naturally, you would need to keep your wagers to a minimum, but doing so will nonetheless add even more thrill to the games.
However, you might not be a big fan of low wagers. High-rollers need to consider the risk factors involved here. For instance, it would not be wise to use strategies that include betting on futures or season totals long before the beginning of the season.
Bettors who have been in the game long enough will know right away which of these strategies suits them best. Being a successful bettor includes figuring out your own strategies too, so you might want to combine some of the ones we have listed here. In any case, we hope you have taken something away from this.
Conclusion
NFL betting strategies, whether basic or advanced, are not as easy to implement as those for other sports. NFL betting requires very specific skills and extensive knowledge, both of the game and the world of sports betting. There are many factors you will need to take into consideration regardless of the strategy you choose, and you will need to be able to analyze a lot of data. It is challenging but ultimately rewarding as well.