How to Calculate NFL Arbitrage Bets
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Arbitrage betting is perhaps one of the most sought-after forms of sports betting. It appeals to bettors because it minimizes risk far more than other forms of wagering. Arbitrage betting means wagering on all possible outcomes simultaneously, thus guaranteeing yourself a profit one way or another.
You may wonder why sports bettors do not use this technique constantly. The reason is simple: it is not always possible. Arbitrage betting opportunities arise only occasionally, and bettors need to be careful not to miss them. When an opportunity arises, you need to know how to calculate your bets.
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NFL Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting occurs when the odds are favorable across all outcomes of a particular event. This most commonly involves a binary bet with only two possible outcomes because covering two possibilities is easier than covering a larger number.
For this type of betting to be available, you will almost certainly need accounts at more than one online sportsbook. If you try arbitrage betting at a single sportsbook, you will most likely get banned. This technique is generally frowned upon by bookies, and it is highly unlikely that you will find the right odds for arbitrage betting without visiting multiple sportsbooks.
Of course, some sportsbooks allow multiple bets on the same matchup. However, they are quite rare nowadays. Additionally, if you rely on one sportsbook, you will be at the mercy of rapid odds fluctuations and might have only a few seconds to place your bets. You will most likely have a better chance if you compare odds at multiple sportsbooks.
Calculating NFL Arbitrage Bets
To determine the correct stake for an NFL arbitrage bet, first calculate the implied probability of each possible outcome. Next, add those probabilities together. Finally, divide each outcome’s implied probability by the total.
Since this process can be difficult to understand without an example, let us clarify it. Say the Patriots are playing the Colts. The odds for the Colts are 1.20 at one sportsbook. The implied probability is 1 / 1.20, which equals 0.833. Multiply this number by 100 to express it as a percentage, which in this case is 83.3%.
The odds for the Patriots, on the other hand, are 8.00. Applying the same formula gives an implied probability of 12.5%. To calculate the market total, we use simple addition: 83.3% + 12.5% = 95.8%.
To determine your stake sizes, divide each implied probability by the market total, then multiply the result by 100. For the Colts, the calculation is (83.3% / 95.8%) x 100 = 86.96%. For the Patriots, it is (12.5% / 95.8%) x 100 = 13.04%.
Let us say the total amount you wish to bet is $100. Multiply that amount by each percentage to determine the size of each bet. For the Colts, $100 x 86.96% = $86.96, and for the Patriots, $100 x 13.04% = $13.04. This way, regardless of who wins, you stand to make a profit of roughly $4.35. We will explain how to calculate your profit in more detail in the next section. First, we will cover another way to make arbitrage bets.
Betting Exchanges
When there is no large discrepancy between the same-event odds offered by different bookies, you might want to consider betting exchanges. Exchange odds work differently and allow NFL fans to back (buy) an outcome or lay (sell) it. However, the exchange charges a commission on these bets.
The formula for calculating your stake is (lay price x back wager) / (current lay odds value minus the commission). Keep in mind that the commission should be no more than 5%.
Calculating NFL Arbitrage Profits
Calculating your profit is just as important as calculating your NFL arbitrage bets. You will need to do some additional math to determine the amount. First, multiply your individual stake by the odds. Then, deduct your total stake to find your profit. Let us illustrate this using the previous example.
If the Colts win, we collect $86.96 x 1.20 = $104.35. After deducting our $100 total stake, we are left with a profit of approximately $4.35. If the Patriots win, we collect $13.04 x 8.00 = $104.32. After deducting our $100 total stake, we are left with a profit of approximately $4.32.
As you can see, the profits from arbitrage betting are not large, but the approach is designed to secure a return regardless of the outcome. Unlike most forms of gambling, arbitrage betting aims to minimize risk by covering every possible outcome.
What Makes Arbitrage Betting Possible
Significant variations between the betting markets of different sportsbooks make this form of wagering possible. However, these variations can be difficult to find because there are rarely large differences between the odds on a single event, regardless of how many sportsbooks you examine. Bookies are usually in agreement, and while you may find odds that are slightly better or worse, opportunities to place arbitrage bets rarely arise.
The companies responsible for setting the odds and lines for an event usually have similar expectations about how it will unfold. However, they sometimes disagree, which can create discrepancies. When a large enough discrepancy occurs, bettors can place NFL arbitrage bets.
Other factors can also affect odds and lines. For instance, if too many wagers are placed on one outcome, bookies might adjust the odds and lines. If the adjustment is dramatic enough, it may give bettors an opportunity to place arbitrage bets.
Positives and Negatives of Arbitrage Betting
In a way, arbitrage betting is a tool for minimizing risk when betting on the NFL. Bettors cover every possible outcome instead of wagering on only one and risking their entire stake if things go wrong. Securing a return instead of facing a potential loss is a definite advantage.
The chance to place an arbitrage bet is also a great opportunity to challenge your skills as a sports bettor. This type of bet is not simple and requires more effort than many bettors are accustomed to. It can help you improve your betting skills.
However, opportunities to place arbitrage bets are quite rare, even if you use a betting exchange. Most often, you will find odds that are too similar to offer any real value. To find worthwhile opportunities, you need to remain vigilant and act immediately because they can disappear almost instantly.
It can be difficult to act quickly when an opportunity arises, and sometimes you might identify one but fail to react in time. By the time you finish your calculations, the odds may no longer be suitable for an arbitrage bet.
Additionally, while this type of bet is designed to secure a profit, that profit is usually small. In fact, a return of more than 3% is rare. This means that arbitrage betting is not a get-rich-quick scheme and is unlikely to generate substantial profits.
Conclusion
Opportunities to place arbitrage bets rarely arise. Even when they do, the profit will most likely be less than 3% of your overall investment. However, arbitrage betting is designed to secure a return regardless of the event’s outcome.
This is a way to minimize risk and reduce the chance of losing. Although such opportunities are difficult to find, you can consider arbitrage betting when suitable odds arise. You will need to act quickly and calculate the correct stake amounts almost immediately. Make sure to bet responsibly!