How to Calculate Football Arbitrage Bets
| Updated: November 6, 2025
Unquestionably, football is one of the most dynamic sports, and it enjoys staggering viewership from fans in countless countries. What attracts gambling enthusiasts is that football, or soccer, is one of the fastest-paced sports and is full of dramatic twists.
Football remains one of the most favored sports among bettors partly because it allows punters to choose from a wide variety of bet types. It is fair to say that arbitrage betting is one of the most talked-about soccer wagering strategies because it significantly increases punters’ chances of winning. This is possible because, with arbitrage betting, gambling aficionados stake money on every possible outcome of a football match, thereby guaranteeing a profit.
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Football Arbitrage Betting Explained
You might be interested to know that arbitrage is a term used in economics and finance, and it describes the simultaneous purchase and sale of something. The goal is to profit from price imbalances.
In essence, arbitrage betting has existed for quite some time, but it gained attention after recent technological developments in online gambling. Although many football fans favor this betting technique, numerous bookmakers frown upon it and do not allow their patrons to use it.
Gambling enthusiasts who have never tried this approach should know that it allows them to take advantage of differences in the odds offered by various online sportsbooks. Soccer devotees can therefore profit no matter how the match ends. Interestingly, this form of football betting is also known as matched betting or sure wins. Whatever term you prefer, you will have to stake on each of the possible outcomes of a match, which means you will receive a payout in any event.
If you are interested in arbitrage betting, you need to find online bookies that allow you to place stakes on the same sporting event. You must pay special attention to whether the odds differ significantly. Gambling aficionados will then have the chance to wager not only on football but also on other sports that offer two possible outcomes. Still, bettors should remember that, because arbitrage relies on fluctuating odds, these opportunities may be available only for a few moments. Soccer fans should therefore stay alert so they can exploit such discrepancies immediately.
Football lovers may be interested to know that this betting technique can be a great tool for generating profit. Still, punters need to understand that arbitrage betting requires patience and, often, larger stakes to realize substantial gains.
How to Calculate Football Arbitrage Bets
There is no doubt that the best way to understand how arbitrage betting works is to study the examples below. Football lovers should bear in mind that there are two ways to place and calculate arbitrage bets. Punters can either place these bets between two online sportsbooks or calculate them between a bookmaker and an exchange.
Football Arbitrage Bets Between Two Bookmakers
Let’s assume there is a matchup between Barcelona and Real Madrid and that you have found two online bookies offering odds on this event. The first bookmaker offers odds of 1.30 for Barcelona to win and 3.70 for Real Madrid to win. The second bookmaker offers odds of 1.40 for Barcelona to win and 2.90 for Real Madrid to win.
To capitalize on this difference, you would stake on Real Madrid at the first sportsbook and on Barcelona at the second, effectively cross-matching the prices offered on the same event. Remember, when using arbitrage betting, your wagers must be proportional to the odds. One of the first steps is to calculate the implied probability. Divide 1 by the odds and multiply the result by 100. For Real Madrid at 3.70, the implied probability is 27.02%. For Barcelona at 1.40, it is 71.42%. Add these values to see whether you have found an arbitrage opportunity and whether you should place the bet.
If the total is below 100%, the opportunity is worthwhile. In our example, the combined implied probability is 98.44%, so placing the stakes would be profitable.
Now, assume you wish to wager $100. To determine the correct stake for each bookmaker, multiply your total stake by the implied probability for that bookmaker, then divide the result by the combined market margin. The formula is (total stake x implied probability) / total market margin. Using our example, you would place $27.44 on Real Madrid and $72.55 on Barcelona.
Football Arbitrage Bets Between a Bookmaker and Exchange
Football lovers can also calculate their arbitrage bets between a bookmaker and an exchange. In this scenario, bettors can back (buy) an outcome or lay (sell) it to increase profit or reduce potential losses.
Suppose you want to stake on a match between Manchester City and Liverpool. The odds for Manchester City to win are 2.20, and the odds for Liverpool are 1.90. The implied probabilities are 45.45% and 52.63%, respectively. Combined, the market margin is 98%.
Now consider Manchester City’s odds on the exchange. Suppose the lay price is 2.20 and the back price for the team to lose is 1.86. The resulting market margin is 99.21%, which represents a solid arbitrage opportunity.
The formula to calculate the lay stake is (lay price x back wager) / (lay odds – exchange commission). If you back $100 and the exchange commission is 0.02, your lay stake would be $118.25.
Why Do Such Opportunities Appear
As already noted, arbitrage betting lets you improve your chances of making a profit by wagering on every outcome in the same market. The match between Manchester City and Liverpool is a prime example because bettors can stake on both teams and ultimately enjoy a guaranteed profit.
Although such opportunities are tempting, they are rare and can be difficult to find. The main reason price discrepancies arise is that bookmakers set odds differently. While odds for the same football match usually do not differ greatly, they can occasionally diverge, especially in markets such as totals and point spreads. Odds compilers must consider a wide range of factors, and their assessments do not always align.
When setting the odds, compilers try to predict how the match will unfold and adjust prices accordingly. For this reason, if you compare odds from several online bookies for the same event, you will often find only minor differences.
However, when compilers’ views differ, inconsistencies in the odds emerge. This is precisely when football bettors can place an arbitrage bet.
Bettors should also remember that operators strive to keep balanced books, meaning they want payouts to stay relatively even regardless of the result. If too much money is placed on one outcome, the bookmaker will lower the odds for that outcome and raise the odds for the other.
As you can see, it can be difficult to predict when an arbitrage opportunity will arise. If you feel confused, do not worry. The most important skill is learning how to identify arbs, not explaining why they occur.
Downsides of Arbitrage Betting
After understanding how arbitrage betting works, you may be eager to try it. One reason many football bettors find this approach appealing is that it promises profit while minimizing risk.
It can indeed help devoted punters earn serious cash, but football lovers should remember that arbitrage betting is not flawless.
One of the biggest downsides is that these opportunities are difficult to find. They are not plentiful, so you must remain vigilant if you want to seize them. Because of their rarity, making consistent profit solely through this method can be challenging.
Another drawback is the modest profit margin on each arb. If you are a casual punter, this may not matter, but those aiming for significant earnings need a larger bankroll to generate sizable returns.
Additionally, most bookmakers frown on arbitrage betting. If they detect this activity, they may limit or even close your account.
Conclusion
To sum up, arbitrage betting can be worthwhile, but gamblers need realistic expectations. Such opportunities are not plentiful, and players should not expect staggering rewards.
For a long-term profit strategy, do not rely solely on arbitrage betting. Consider combining it with other soccer betting methods that promise larger returns over time.