How to Calculate NFL Arbitrage Bets
| Updated: November 10, 2025
Arbitrage betting is perhaps the most sought-after form of sports betting. It appeals to bettors because it minimizes risk far more than other forms of wagering. Arbitrage betting means wagering on all possible outcomes simultaneously, thus guaranteeing yourself a win one way or another.
You may wonder why sports bettors do not apply this technique constantly. The reason is simple: it is not always possible. Arbitrage betting is only possible occasionally, and bettors need to be very careful not to miss the opportunity. Once it arises, you need to know how to calculate your bets.
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NFL Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting occurs when the odds are favorable for all outcomes of a certain event. This is most commonly a binary bet with only two possible outcomes. That is so because it is easier to cover only two separate possibilities than any larger number.
For this type of betting to be available to you, you will almost certainly need to have an account at more than one online sportsbook. If you try arbitrage betting at a single sportsbook, you will most likely get banned. This technique is generally frowned upon by bookies, and it is highly unlikely you will find the right odds for arbitrage betting without visiting multiple sportsbooks.
Of course, there are some sportsbooks that allow multiple bets on the same matchup. However, they are quite rare nowadays. Additionally, if you rely on one sportsbook you will be at the mercy of rapid odds fluctuations and might have only a few seconds to place your bet. You will most likely have a better chance if you look at multiple sportsbooks.
Calculating NFL Arbitrage Bets
To determine the correct stake for an NFL arbitrage, first calculate the implied probability of each possible outcome. Next, add those probabilities together. Finally, divide the implied probability of each outcome by the total, individually.
Since this process can be hard to understand without an example, let us clarify. Say the Patriots are playing the Colts. The odds for the Colts are 1.20 at one sportsbook. The implied probability is 1/1.20, which equals 0.833. Multiply this number by 100 to express it as a percentage, which in this case is 83.3%.
The odds for the Patriots, on the other hand, are 8.00. Applying the same formula returns 12.5% as the implied probability. Now, to get the market total we need to do some simple addition: 83.3% + 12.5% = 95.8%.
To determine your stake sizes, divide each implied probability by the market total, then multiply by 100. For the Colts, the calculation is (83.3%/95.8%) x 100 = 86.952%. For the Patriots, it is (12.5%/95.8%) x 100 = 13.048%.
Let us say the overall amount you wish to bet is $100. All you need to do is multiply that number by each figure to get the size of each bet you should place. For the Colts, 100×86.95% = 86.95, and for the Patriots, 100×13.05% = 13.05. This way, regardless of who wins, you stand to make a profit of roughly $4.40. We will go into more detail about calculating your profits in the next section. Now, we will go over another way to make arbitrage bets.
Betting Exchanges
When there is no large discrepancy between the same-event odds of one bookie and another, you might want to consider betting exchanges. Exchange odds differ and give NFL fans the chance to back (buy) an outcome or lay (sell) it. However, the exchange charges a commission on these bets.
The formula for calculating your stake is (lay price x back wager) / (current lay odds value minus the commission). Keep in mind that the commission should not exceed 5%.
Calculating NFL Arbitrage Profits
Calculating your guaranteed profit is just as important as calculating your NFL arbitrage bets. Naturally, you will have to do some more math to get a figure. First, you need to take your individual stake and multiply it by the odds. Then deduct your total stake to find your guaranteed profit. Let us illustrate this by using the previous example.
If the Colts win, we collect ($86.95×1.20) = $104.34. After we remove our $100 stake, we get our $4.34 guaranteed profit. On the other hand, if the Patriots win, we collect ($13.05×8.00) = $104.38. Then, once again, we deduct our $100 stake and we get our $4.38 guaranteed profit.
As you can see, the profits from arbitrage betting are not large, but they are certain. With all forms of gambling, profits are never guaranteed. This is why arbitrage betting is so highly sought after. It accomplishes the impossible and guarantees you a win every time.
What Makes Arbitrage Betting Possible
Significant variations between the betting markets of different sportsbooks make this form of wagering possible. They are quite hard to find, though, as we already mentioned. This is because there are rarely such large differences between the odds on one event, regardless of how many sportsbooks you examine. Bookies are usually in agreement, and while you can find odds that are slightly better or slightly worse, the opportunity to place an arbitrage bet rarely arises.
The companies that are responsible for making the odds and lines of a given event usually have the same idea about how things will progress. However, sometimes they do not agree, and that is when discrepancies occur. When a large enough discrepancy occurs, players can make NFL arbitrage bets.
Other factors also affect odds and lines. For instance, if too many stakes are placed on one outcome, the bookies might shift the odds and lines. If this happens in a dramatic enough fashion, it will also give players the opportunity to place arbitrage bets.
Positives and Negatives of Arbitrage Betting
In a way, arbitrage betting is a tool to minimize risk when betting on the NFL. After all, bettors ensure a win instead of wagering on only one outcome and risking their entire stake if things go south. Having a sure win instead of a potential loss looming over your head is definitely a positive.
Having the chance to make an arbitrage bet is a great opportunity to challenge your skills as a sports bettor. This type of bet is not simple and requires more effort than most players are used to. It will definitely improve your skill level.
However, the opportunities for an arbitrage bet are quite rare, even if you decide to place an exchange bet. Most often, you will find odds that are far too similar to hold any real value. To find these opportunities, you need to remain vigilant and act immediately because they disappear almost instantly.
It can be quite hard to act quickly when the chance arises and sometimes you might see the opportunity and simply not react in time. By the time you have finished your calculations, the odds will probably already be unfit for an arbitrage bet.
Additionally, while the profit from this type of bet is certain, it is also small. In fact, a return of more than 3% is a rarity. This means it is definitely not a get-rich-quick scheme, and you cannot really make substantial profits.
Conclusion
So, the opportunity to make an arbitrage bet rarely arises. Even if it does, the profits will most likely be under 3% on your overall investment. However, this is a way to guarantee yourself a win, regardless of the outcome of the event.
This is a way to minimize risk and remove the chance of losing altogether. So, despite the fact that such opportunities are hard to find, if you happen to find them, you should give arbitrage betting a try. You will need to be quick and calculate the right amount to bet almost immediately. Make sure to bet responsibly!