How to Predict NFL Results
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Perhaps the hardest part of any type of sports betting is learning how to predict the results of a game accurately. With the NFL, that is even harder than with most other sports, as there are a myriad of factors to consider. There are many ways to go about predicting the end results of any NFL game.
There are countless factors related to the teams and individual players, along with their key strengths and weaknesses. You can also utilize statistics to predict the most likely end results of a game. Additionally, you should not forget the role that trends play.
At first, it might be hard to know where to start. After all, predicting anything accurately is quite the challenge, and predicting NFL results even more so. We suggest starting by studying the various factors that affect the game.
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Various Factors That Affect the Game
The first type of factor you should examine is everything that may affect a team’s overall quality and value. This includes evaluating every aspect of what makes a team good. All of this is necessary for any NFL bettor to get the full picture and make an educated prediction.
Team Quality
The quality of every individual player is of the utmost importance. Most NFL bettors consider only the quarterback, when in reality they should be evaluating every single player. Of course, this does not mean that the quarterback is unimportant, but he matters just as much as his relationships with the left and right tackles. Naturally, the defensive players also matter greatly.
This points to another factor, the balance of a team. The balance we are talking about refers to how many players stand out. If there is only one star player and everyone else is merely adequate, there is no balance, and the team is less likely to win, especially if that star gets injured. A team needs to consist of players who are roughly equal in ability to be balanced and to have the best chance of winning.
Even a team of ordinary players can stand a better chance if the roster is evenly matched, particularly when the team has a strong sense of unity. You can tell whether this is the case by studying the team carefully and trying to figure out the relationships between key players. A team that works well together can surpass a team with better athletes but less unity.
To predict a team’s results accurately, you must also be fully aware of both its greatest strengths and biggest weaknesses. For instance, if two teams are strong on defense but weak on offense, it may be wiser to bet on the under rather than pick a winner.
The style of a team is also very important. If a team’s style dictates a focus on offense or defense, that will obviously affect the game. This depends on the coach, but it can tell you a lot about his relationship with the squad. If the players are more comfortable with an offensive style but the coach prefers a defense-oriented one, the players may underperform. A team might have plenty of star players who simply do not fit its style.
The coaching staff is equally critical. The head coach is responsible for pre-game planning and post-game analysis, must keep morale high, and has to lead the team. However, the offensive and defensive coordinators are also vital because they call the plays and decide on defensive schemes.
How a team handles pressure is another factor that can greatly affect the game yet is often overlooked by NFL bettors. A seemingly perfect team can crumble under pressure, while some teams perform best under pressure. Knowing how a team reacts when the stakes are high can be the difference between a win and a loss.
Consistency is also a key factor in NFL betting. If a team has consistently won or lost during the season, it may be easier to predict the outcome of its next game. If the team shows no consistency, it will be harder to forecast whether it will win or lose. Of course, many other factors can help you in such cases.
Game Conditions
The conditions in which a game is held can have a great impact on players, especially regarding weather. It is worth reviewing the history of the team you want to back to see how it performs in adverse weather.
The venue can affect a team’s play as well. In fact, the home team wins about 60% of NFL games, so home-field advantage definitely matters. This is especially true if the road team may be overwhelmed by the venue; for instance, a stadium like CenturyLink Field can be intimidating.
A team’s schedule is also an important factor. If the road team has traveled from the West Coast to the East Coast and has to play in the early afternoon, it is more likely to underperform. Even athletes get jet-lagged, which is why this factor is worth considering.
Additional Factors
The recent results of a team can be a good indicator of what the future holds. For instance, if a team has been winning recently, the players will experience heightened motivation and confidence. Conversely, if the team has been losing a lot, players may do worse than usual. However, some teams perform even better after a close loss because they are motivated to get back in the game.
Motivation itself is another important factor. If a team is playing a long-time rival, its motivation will definitely affect the game. Players are more likely to perform better than usual. However, some players might get too fired up and lose control of their emotions, which can lead to outbursts. This depends on the players’ history.
Naturally, injuries will also have a lasting effect on the game. Always check injury reports before placing a bet. If a key player has been injured and cannot play, the team may suffer. Some teams, however, have capable substitutes who might even perform better because they are eager to prove themselves.
As you can see, all factors are closely tied together, which is why it is important not to ignore any of them. When it comes to predicting NFL games, no detail is too small. It is a complex game with plenty of things to consider.
Using Statistics
Statistics can be very useful when trying to determine the outcome of an NFL game. They can help you uncover the true strengths and weaknesses of a team and make it easier to compare the general quality of teams. Statistics will help you make a more informed betting decision. Here are some basic NFL statistics you should consider when trying to predict results.
Points Per Game
This is one of the simpler statistics you can find in the NFL. The PPG stat tells you how many points a team has scored throughout the season, divided by the number of games. This statistic is especially useful when betting on totals, as you can compare Points Per Game scored and Points Per Game allowed to gain a better understanding of a team’s capacity.
Yards Per Game
The Yards Per Game gained or allowed by a team is another easy-to-understand statistic. On its own it does not tell us much, but if you also consider the team’s style of play, it can be very useful. You can also find statistics on Rushing Yards and Passing Yards.
Third Down Efficiency
This statistic is very informative by itself. As you know, a third down is most often a team’s last chance to maintain possession. A team’s ability to convert on third down is quite telling about its quality. The better a team is at it, the more likely it is to win. The numbers to look for here are in the high forties.
Sacks
The number of sacks a player or a team makes can give NFL bettors additional insight into a team’s quality. It is also indicative of overall performance and how the team might perform in the future. This statistic alone, however, should not be the only one you consider.
Tackles and Interceptions
Both of these statistics can provide useful information about a team’s defense, but neither is very useful on its own. For instance, a team with a high tackle count might have a weakness elsewhere and use tackles as compensation. On the other hand, there simply are not many interceptions per game overall, which means you cannot read too much into that number.
Advanced Statistics
By using more advanced statistics, you can learn more about a team’s offensive and overall quality. Two statistics that can tell you a lot about offense are Pass Yards Per Attempt and Team Yards Per Carry. To gauge overall strength, you can also look at Yards Per Play Differential, Yards After Catch, Turnover Differential, and Negative Pass Play Percentage.
The Poisson Distribution
The Poisson Distribution is a statistics-based mathematical model. It allows you to calculate how likely an event is to occur n times within a set period, provided the event occurs at a constant rate. Otherwise, you cannot use this model.
You can use it to estimate how many touchdowns a single player will score during the next quarter, game, season, and so on. However, this approach, called the binomial model, assumes that every period of time is independent. If we are calculating how many touchdowns a player will score per quarter, scoring in the first quarter says nothing about whether he will score in the second. Although this is not entirely realistic for several reasons, the model is still accurate enough to consider. You can simplify the equations by using a Poisson distribution with a parameter of ½.
The math required here might be a bit above average, but you will get results.
Using Trends
To determine the results of an NFL game, you can rely not only on statistics but also on trends. Spotting and using trends may be difficult for a beginner, but we will outline a few basic trends any bettor can take advantage of.
First Half Scoring Trends
You can often see a clear difference between a team that has scored in the first half and one that has fallen behind. Usually, the team that scores early ends up winning, especially if the other team falls far behind. When a team scores early, it starts with a solid lead and can reinforce that lead more easily than the opposing team can overcome it.
As tension builds in the second half, many teams make more mistakes while trying to score, so a slow start can end up costing a team dearly.
Generally, teams that score in the first half are considered strong and have an advantage over opponents with lower first-half numbers. This makes the trend quite useful.
Sharp Line Moves
When the line moves sharply and the odds change suddenly, it is usually a sign that professional bettors have placed substantial wagers. Of course, this depends on when you are looking at the lines and odds. For instance, obvious changes right after opening lines are usually the work of pros.
Another sign that professionals are betting is when the numbers in a point spread move away from the most common winning margins. It takes a lot of money to shift those numbers, so this is often an indicator of heavy action from serious bettors.
Sometimes pros wait for the public to move a line to a certain number and then bet late against the flow. A significant change in the margin later on could therefore signal that a seasoned NFL bettor has placed a wager.
Coaching Trends
As you know, a good coach can make all the difference. A coach can bring a team more victories than ever before, or just as easily bring a successful team down. This is why it is extremely important to consider a team’s coach when betting on the NFL.
If you plan to bet on a certain team, examine its preseason performance, especially if it has a new coach. This will give you insight into what to expect during the regular season.
Home Underdog Trends
Some NFL bettors always back the more popular team. This is unwise, as popular teams lose as well. Most people overlook that possibility, which creates a betting opportunity for you.
When the more popular team is on the road and the underdog is playing at home, you might find some of the best odds available. You need to be highly selective when using this trend, because it is hard to know exactly when it will have a tangible effect. Nevertheless, the opportunity will arise, as the general public often ignores the fatigue and stress that traveling can inflict on a team.
Bye Week Trends
Some strategies claim you should always bet on a team’s first game after its Bye Week. That is not necessarily true, as there is sometimes no way to tell how a team will perform after the break.
If you see a definite trend in a team’s post-Bye Week games, then betting based on that data can be smart. For instance, some teams seem rejuvenated after their break and perform better than usual, while others are off their game and consistently lose their first post-Bye Week contest. However, if no clear trend exists, it is best not to base your wager on this factor alone.
Bounce Back Trends
This trend is important to follow right after the team you want to bet on has lost. Look at how the team has responded to similar losses in the past. For instance, if the loss was against a big rival, the team is more likely to be fired up, but you should still examine how it reacted to comparable defeats.
Other times, losses can be heartbreaking and destroy a team’s spirit and confidence, leading to a losing streak. Be very careful when analyzing the data, and remember to consider all the other factors as well.
Conclusion
There are many ways to predict NFL results, and they all require time and effort. You will need to learn to analyze every piece of data concerning the game. It may be difficult, but it is definitely not impossible, especially if you use the factors, statistics, and trends listed above.