NFL Betting Systems Explained
| Updated: November 10, 2025
While there are no NFL-specific betting systems per se, some sports betting systems are particularly useful for NFL wagering. As this is a complete guide to the NFL betting world, we will introduce you to most of the systems you may encounter. Of course, you can choose to implement any of them or create your own.
You can apply most systems to NFL betting, especially to even-money bets. As you know, these are not the majority of NFL wagers, so we will help you find a system that suits your betting style. There are three main types of betting systems, and by learning about them you will be able to navigate the online betting world with greater ease.
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Types of Betting Systems
Before we explain individual betting systems, we will review the main types of systems. This serves as a helpful introduction because each system is built on these types. Once you understand their fundamental makeup, you will find the rest of this article much easier to follow.
Positive progression betting is the first type. The idea is that a gambler should increase the stake after a win. It relies on winning streaks, which makes the strategy somewhat flawed, especially if you use the technique known as “letting it ride.” You appear to risk only one bet, but in reality you are risking all of your winnings.
Negative progression betting works the opposite way. Here, you increase your stake after a loss. The premise is that if you double your bet after a loss and then win, you will break even. Accordingly, if you keep losing you keep doubling, and when a win finally comes you recover your previous losses.
However, this logic is flawed because it assumes you are bound to win eventually. You might run out of money long before you recoup your losses.
The insurance betting system is a safer approach. This type of system requires you to decrease your stake after each loss. In this way, a losing streak costs you less. Of course, you should also know when to quit if you hit a losing streak. Sometimes it is better to stop and return with a clear mind.
Progressive Betting Systems
Progressive betting systems specify exactly how you should bet in different situations. They give direct instructions on how large your bets should be, what to do after a win, and what to do after a loss. The guidelines depend on your current streak and how many times you have won or lost. Your bankroll size also matters because everything is proportional to it.
Different progressions can be employed depending on your style and bankroll. Both negative and positive progressions exist, and within each category there is plenty of variety. Below you can see how diverse these systems can be despite sharing the same foundation.
NFL Betting Systems
Several betting systems are widely used across all forms of gambling, including NFL wagering. You can apply them when betting on your favorite team. Here, we will briefly explain how they work and how effective they are in practice.
Martingale System
This is a negative progression betting system. Its modern rules are simple: double your stake after every loss and return to your base unit after a win. The goal is to recoup losses and generate a small profit, yet the chances of long-term success with this system are slim.
Fibonacci System
This system follows the Fibonacci sequence (excluding the initial 0): 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on. Here, 1 represents one unit, the size of your predetermined bet. As mentioned in a previous article, your unit should be about 2-3% of your total bankroll. You employ the sequence while losing, then after one win you return to a single unit until another loss occurs. Using this system requires a sizable bankroll.
D’Alembert System
This system is based on the idea of equilibrium: wins and losses should balance out over time. You increase your stake by one unit after a loss and decrease it by one unit after a win. The assumption that wins and losses will even out is not entirely accurate, but it is closer to the truth with even-money bets, so we suggest sticking to those if you use this system.
Paroli System
The Paroli system is also most effective with even-money bets. You start with one unit; after each win you double your stake. When you win three times in a row, or when you lose, return to one unit.
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is widely employed by bettors because it can increase profit over the long run. The method is mathematically sound and relies on a few straightforward formulas. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to apply them. The calculation takes into account the odds, the probability of success, and the probability of failure. The result is either a positive or a negative number. A positive figure suggests placing a bet, while a negative one signals that you should refrain. We will cover this system in detail in a separate article.
Making Your Own System
To create your own NFL betting system, you first need experience. Additionally, you must be familiar with existing betting systems so you can draw on their insights. In short, you need a solid understanding of the entire NFL betting landscape.
This also means that you need extensive knowledge of the NFL: statistics, analysis, history, and more. You must be a dedicated fan to accomplish this. Keeping up with all available information is not easy nowadays, so take that into account before you decide to create your own system.
Additionally, you need to find reliable websites for both day-to-day news and statistics. There are specialized sites for NFL stats, but not all are legitimate, so be careful. Naturally, you must also make sure that the sportsbook you choose is fully legitimate.
Now comes the actual creation of a system, and it starts with designing a formula or set of criteria. This is done by synthesizing everything you consider essential to the game and sports betting, and understanding the relationships between factors. After that, you can put your system into something more practical, like a spreadsheet, so you can track your results easily and see if they are consistent.
You can check whether your system works by testing it mathematically or by reviewing the data in your spreadsheet. You can make hypothetical bets to see how it performs, or place small real-money wagers to try it out. Keep in mind that betting based on an untested system carries extra risk.
In any case, you will have the chance to see whether your system has any flaws. Do not get discouraged if it does, as this is not an easy task. Simply keep refining it until it is perfect for you. There is no shame in abandoning an idea if it becomes too much of a challenge.
Conclusion
Whether you use one of the many available betting systems or have created your own, it is important to have the self-control to stick to it. To use a system properly, you need to stay calm and keep betting according to plan. Wagering without a system makes it easier to slip into poor decisions. A good system can improve your profits and, just as important, significantly decrease your losses, which is why these methods deserve your consideration.