NFL Value Betting
| Updated: November 10, 2025
Value is something we look for in everything, and NFL betting should be no different. In fact, it is the most important factor, and if you wish to be successful at this form of sports betting, you need to study it thoroughly. Value betting is not simple, but it is absolutely essential, so make sure you have learned all there is to know about it before proceeding. The key to improving as a sports bettor lies in betting for value.
What is Value Betting
Many people think value betting is based solely on the odds, but it actually involves much more. To find true value, you need to see past the seemingly good odds and learn to look for the smaller opportunities that are almost guaranteed to win. Of course, there are no complete certainties in sports betting.
However, unless you are an expert at making NFL predictions, you will have to rely on the odds to some extent. To do that, you need to fully understand all factors that affect the odds. After all, they are directly linked to the probability of the wager winning or losing, as well as which way the public is leaning. You can find lots of useful information coded in the odds.
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The first thing you must always keep in mind is that seemingly great odds do not guarantee a big win. In fact, too often the exact opposite is true. Odds are set so that if there is an obvious winner, the odds will be low, as that outcome is easy to predict. Therefore, most people will bet on that outcome, and if the odds were high, the bookie would end up broke.
On the other hand, low odds may indicate a smaller payout, but they usually also mean the wager is more likely to win. This means the potential profit is smaller than that offered by high odds, but the bet is much safer. After all, it is much better to have an almost certain small profit than a very unlikely big one when you have made a substantial bet.
The idea that bigger odds always mean a bigger payout is actually a myth that is unfortunately quite common. Not many punters go through the trouble of considering the factors that affect both the odds and the outcome of the sporting event they are betting on. We hope that, thanks to this information, you will avoid making the same mistakes.
Factors That Affect the Odds
There are three main factors that affect the odds: the vigorish, or vig, the weight of money, and the need for a balanced book. Understanding all of them is necessary for making successful value bets and learning the true probability of a given event.
The Vig
Whenever we consider the odds, we must also keep in mind that the bookies need to make money too. That is what the vig is, and in this case, it comes straight out of the odds. The vig is not a fee when it comes to sports betting. The odds are reduced from their true value, and the vig comes from the difference between the numbers.
This is the exact reason why you cannot find even odds. If the odds are even, the sportsbook would have to pay out approximately the same amount of money regardless of the outcome of the sporting event. That would mean no profit for the sportsbook, which would, in turn, put it out of business. Of course, this does not mean the odds are stacked against you. If the odds were not fair, the sportsbook would once again go out of business.
The Weight of Money
The distribution of bet money affects the odds as well. This is called the weight of money. If there is much more money on one side than on the other, the sportsbook must act. The bookie then changes the odds and lines to balance out the action, making it more attractive to bet on the other outcome.
This may mean that the more likely of the two outcomes will have worse odds as more money is wagered on it. The reason for this is that sportsbooks need to make a profit. They will always make sure that, in the end, they take in more money than they pay out.
Balanced Books
Every bookie strives to have a balanced book. This means taking roughly the same amount of money on each outcome of a given event. Of course, this also means the sportsbook needs to offer odds that are as close to the true odds as possible.
However, no bookie will ever offer true odds or have a completely balanced book, because that would mean the sportsbook would not make a profit. Imagine a sportsbook offering odds of 2.00 on either outcome of a game and taking $20,000 in wagers on each outcome. Regardless of the result, the sportsbook would have to pay out $40,000, leaving nothing for itself. If the odds are 1.91 instead, things change.
Implied Probability
To be successful at value betting, you must understand what implied probability means and how it differs from true probability. The implied probability of a sporting event, in this case an NFL game, is determined by the odds a sportsbook presents.
You can calculate implied probability with the following formula: 1/odds x100. This calculation gives you a percentage that more accurately represents the chance of a specific outcome. Of course, as we already mentioned, implied probability is not the same as true probability.
True probability cannot be calculated using the odds offered by any sportsbook. Instead, to determine it, you need to figure out the true odds of a sporting event by considering all the different factors that can influence the outcome. You can find more on this in our other articles.
Implied and true probability differ because a sportsbook cannot offer true odds. As previously explained, sportsbooks need to offer slightly adjusted odds to make a profit. The difference between the two is the vigorish.
How to Use Implied Probability to Calculate Bets
You can use the implied probability of any NFL game to determine your bet size. Although there is no exact formula for how much you should wager, there are two formulas you can use to see whether the bet you are about to make has positive value.
The first formula is: (1/odds) x100. For this formula to work, you should use decimal odds. The number you get should be between 0 and 1; you then multiply it by 100, as shown above, to convert it to a percentage.
The other formula is: (Probability x odds) – 1. This equation uses both implied probability and odds, so you may feel more comfortable with it. However, both formulas work, and either one will tell you whether a bet has positive value.
Depending on how satisfied you are with the positive value of a wager, you should bet a smaller or larger amount. If the bet holds value and you believe it is likely to be successful, you should wager as much as your predetermined bankroll allows. If not, you may wish to reconsider placing that bet altogether.
You can also calculate the profitability of a stake with this formula: (potential payout x probability of winning) – (potential loss x probability of losing). In this case, you need to determine both the true probability of winning and of losing.
These equations are neat and seemingly simple, but in practice, finding the numbers that represent true probability and true odds is almost impossible. Naturally, you can get pretty close, and that helps. The closer you get, the more accurate your predictions will be.
Value Betting Tips
As you can see, value betting on the NFL is not simple, but it is rewarding. It takes time and practice, but after a short while you will be able to spot value betting opportunities easily. There are several things you can do to improve until then.
You should start by finding the true odds of the NFL wager you wish to make. This may not be easy, but it will definitely help you make better bets. Do this by looking at all factors that may have an effect, which will vary depending on the type of bet you want to place.
The same goes for finding the true probability of the wager winning or losing. While this is not a guarantee, it is as close as you can get in sports betting, and it is highly important. Comparing implied probability with true probability can also help you find the best sportsbook for the bet you want to place.
You can also do yourself a favor by finding the online sportsbook that offers the best odds on the bet you wish to place. Plenty of players simply do not do this and thus miss out on great value betting opportunities. The differences are often small, but that does not mean they are insignificant. You can profit greatly from those small differences.
You should try to be as informed as possible on every sporting event you want to bet on. The more you know, the more likely you are to have a clear idea of the outcome. However, bias is a major drawback when it comes to value betting, so you should never let your emotions get the better of you while betting on the NFL.
To be successful at sports betting, you may also wish to consider some less common NFL bet types. Point spreads and totals are the most popular types of NFL bets at the moment, and while they are easier to predict, they rarely offer good value. Try looking at some prop bets or accumulators.
Another alternative type of NFL betting you should consider is live betting. This will simplify your job as a value bettor because, as the game progresses, you will be able to predict the outcomes of the different available wagers more accurately. This gives you a great advantage over the bookies. Furthermore, there are plenty of strategies based on live betting that you can use.
Conclusion
Value betting is not a separate betting strategy but rather something no punter can do without. It is essential for anyone who wants to be successful at sports betting, regardless of whether you are betting on the NFL or something else. It relies on several key factors, but once you get the hang of it, you will be able to recognize bets with positive value easily.
Thanks to the equations we have provided, you can make this process even more precise. You will even be able to calculate the potential profitability of a stake. All you need to do from that point on is make sure you play responsibly.